Will Libya's decade long war come to an end?
Since the Arab Spring uprising in 2011, Libya has been in a state of chaos, constantly fed and manipulated by external powers with conflicting motives and strategies. For more than a decade, Libya has been perceived as a promising playground for regional players due to the ongoing political turmoil in the country that sits on Africa’s largest oil reserves. Although the underlying reasons and motives of different parties in war are highly complex to understand, the war in Libya can be attributed to disputes over oil, mercenaries, ideology, and geopolitical ambitions.
As a result of the NATO-backed uprising in 2011, the former dictator Muammar Gaddafi was overthrown and killed, leading to the rise of two rival authorities in Libya. With the lack of central governance, eastern and southern regions of Libya were led by the renegade military commander Khalifa Haftar’s self-styled Libyan National Army (LNA), claiming to fight against Islamist terrorism. On the other hand, the Tripoli-based Government of National Accord (GNA), led by Fayez al-Sarraj and recognized by the UN, took control of the western parts of the country. Foreign powers have weighed in since the beginning of the conflict: Turkey, Qatar, and some European countries have been extending their supports to al-Sarraj’s GNA; while the UAE, Egypt, and Russia have been backing up Eastern strongman Haftar’s LNA.
Recent Failure of Haftar’s Offensive and Ceasefire Proposals
In April 2019, with the military operation launched by Haftar to take over the capital Tripoli by force, the situation has reached new heights. Bearing in mind LNA’s UAE sponsored air superiority, many expected that this advance on Tripoli would result in the defeat of GNA, ending the decade long war. However, contrary to the general expectations, Haftar’s LNA forces have started to face significant military setbacks in their battle to capture Tripoli for the past few weeks. The military victories of the GNA forces were accelerated by Turkey’s airpower, turn-ing the tide in the conflict. After successfully repulsing the LNA’s offensive to Tripoli, the GNA forces have stated that they have regained full control over all areas surrounding the city.
The previous attempts to stabilize the situation in the region primarily failed due to the unwillingness of both parties in conflict. In January 2020, relying on LNA’s success in the battlefield, Haftar left the peace talks before signing the Russian and Turkish brokered ceasefire agreement. Similarly, a few weeks later, the Berlin Summit organized with the participation of Turkey, Russia, France, Italy, the US, and other nations failed to address its purpose for the same reasons. It is evident that Haftar’s actions to delay the peace negotiations were due to his urge to secure higher benefits from the ceasefire agreement. Following the series of recent military setbacks of the LNA forces, however, Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi proposed an initiative under the name of ‘Cairo Declaration’ to terminate the conflict in Libya. The Cairo Declaration includes a proposal for a ceasefire to take effect starting from Monday, June 8th, demanding the withdrawal of foreign mercenaries from all Libyan soils. The Cairo Declaration also called for "dismantling militias and handing over their weaponry so that the Libyan National Army (LNA) would be able to carry out its military and security responsibilities and duties." The UN Support Mission in Libya, the US, France, Russia, and several other countries have expressed their interest in this initiative.
Two days after meeting with Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, in capital Ankara, Fayez al-Sarraj commanded the GNA forces to launch an offensive to seize Sirte on June 6th. Backed by intensive military support from Turkey, GNA aims to capture the last major settlement that serves as a boundary between Libya's west and LNA-controlled east. The area is vital for the direction of the war since it is the main gateway to access Libya’s main oil fields.
Turkey’s Involvement
In accordance with its ambitions for geopolitical supremacy in the eastern Mediterranean, Turkey has intervened in Libyan civil war by aiding the GNA. Shortly after signing a maritime boundary deal with the UN-recognised government of Tripoli, Turkey has intensified its intervention to prevent its agreement from becoming void if al-Sarraj gets ousted from power. This agreement has re-enforced Turkey’s ‘Blue Homeland’ (Mavi Vatan) project, causing backlash from its maritime neighbors Greece, Cyprus, Egypt, Israel, and Lebanon over oil and gas drilling rights.
Alarmed by Turkey’s increasing dominance in the region, Greece, Cyprus, and Israel had started to establish a gas pipeline that would bypass Turkey. However, as of May 2020, realizing their common interests in the region, Turkey and Israel are seeking to restore diplomatic ties which have been in a rift since 2010 when Mavi Marmara, a Turkish cargo ship carrying humanitarian aid to the Hamas-run Gaza Strip, was raided by Israeli commandos, resulting in the deaths of 10 Turkish civilians on board. Last month, Israel did not sign the recent statement proposed by Cyprus, Egypt, France, Greece, and the UAE, condemning Turkey for its "illegal activities” in the Eastern Mediterranean. Israel’s stance towards the joint declaration also signals its interests in restoring its relationship with Turkey and working together in the region.
What’s next for the future of Libya?
This year, Libya’s civil war has entered its 9th year, and yet even with the Egypt sponsored cease-fire proposal, the end seems no way near. Endless conflict seems to be normalized in Libya due to the number of different parties involved with conflicting motives. Some analysts interpret that the recent military success of GNA would not be enough to end Libya's war, but it would instead lead to a return to the status quo before the launch of Haftar’s Tripoli offensive.
Demonstrating resistance to previous ceasefire attempts, Haftar’s defeat in the west gave him no choice but to agree on an Egypt sponsored ceasefire to minimize his loss. Previously, the GNA has stated its commitment to UN-sponsored peace talks, but its offensive on Sirte and determination to retake Haftar’s Juffra base in central Libya might have altered their agenda. The agreement of a ceasefire would also facilitate the oil production in the country, which has dropped significantly with Haftar’s supporters blockading facilities in the east.
With the success of GNA in recapturing the international airport and regaining the coastline and Tripoli, Turkey is demanding an immediate solution not tied to ceasefire efforts. Turkey is seeking out support from NATO and Italy in its efforts of implementing a political solution preserving Libya’s territorial integrity. Russia, on the other hand, is in favour of a divided Libya, which would allow Moscow to control some of the country’s strategically important territories and resources. Initially acknowledging Haftar for his contributions in combatting “terrorism”, the US involvement in the issue has not been clear. Recently, by accusing Russia with the deployment of fighter aircrafts, the US has broken its silence on the issue. Most notably, the US’s recent remarks indicate that the Russian presence in Libya is alarming for NATO’s and its own interests. Once again, the world’s eyes will be on Libya as the political dialogues start on Monday, June 8th, which will not only determine the future of the country and the Mediterranean, but will also re-establish global power dynamics.