Peace Negotiations in Libya: The Aftermath of the Berlin Summit

The world’s eyes were on Berlin this past weekend as the two parties in the conflict in Libya, along with representatives of their foreign sponsors and other nations, met to negotiate the end of the 10 months of conflict in the North African country.  

Libyan Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj, who is the head of the Government of National Accord (GNA), which is recognized by the United Nations, and Khalifa Haftar, commander of the independent Libyan National Army (LNA), attended the summit with government officials from Turkey, Russia, France, Italy, the United States and other nations to discuss the conditions of the ceasefire that ultimately aimed to end the long-lasting war in Libya.   

Understanding the situation 

Ever since the NATO-backed uprising in 2011, during which the former dictator Muammar Gaddafi was overthrown and killed. After the end of the dictatorship, two rival authorities were in control of the country: the Eastern part was led by Haftar, who was based in Tobruk, and the Western part by al-Sarraj and based in Tripoli. Statistics, provided by the UN, indicate that more than 280 civilians and 2,000 fighters have been killed since April in the oil-rich country. In addition, it has been estimated that almost 146,000 Libyans have been displaced, almost half of this figure being children.  

The conflict has attracted the attention of several nations, which resulted in the extensive military support of Turkey to GNA, and Russia, the United Arab Emirates, and Egypt supporting LNA. With the increased military involvement from foreign powers, the situation became more inextricable. Russia has strengthened its presence in the region by the provision of mercenaries from the Wagner group, a paramilitary organization, to the LNA. The UAE extended its air support to LNA’s forces located in the suburbs. After the ratification of a series of agreements between the head of GNA and the Turkish Government on maritime transit and security, Turkey began to station troops in Libya in order to enhance security cooperation in its commitment in defending the government in Tripoli. 

Earlier this month, during negotiations, both sides had mutually agreed on signing a tentative ceasefire consolidated by Turkey and Russia. But during the peace talks that took place in Moscow on January 12, Haftar dramatically departed Moscow before consensus had been reached. Upon his unpredictable move, Haftar stated that ‘‘The draft (agreement) ignores many of the Libyan Army’s demands.’’ In response, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, threatened Haftar, stating that they would teach him ‘‘a lesson’’ if he resumed the violent attacks on Tripoli. Haftar’s puzzling actions can possibly be caused by the variances in the interests of his different backers. Haftar is mainly supported by Russia, along with Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia. It is possible his sponsors exerted pressure on him to delay the peace talks in an attempt to increase their benefits from the ceasefire agreement. 

Prior to the summit, Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, emphasized that the priority at the summit should be given to the enforcement of a UN arms embargo on Libya. In contrast to the other members of the European Union which showed support for Haftar, who currently is accused of bombing civilians, Germany urged the need for political dialogue rather than further violence in Libya and was willing to act as a mediator. Thus, it could possibly be inferred that Berlin’s interests tended to be in conflict with other EU members.  

Bearing in mind the deal between Erdogan and Putin, both sides in the conflict were aware of the need to compromise and acknowledged the fact that victory cannot be achieved only through military action. Haftar’s latest move, the blockage of oil exports from the main ports controlled by the government based in Tripoli, was also significant in the current situation as the country’s only source of revenue was under threat. In the build-up to the summit, the UN urged the Libyans to "exercise maximum restraint". 

The Berlin summit was the latest attempt to foster peace and stability in the region, and it should be noted that although each party had conflicting demands and agendas, they were successfully able to sit at the table to take a step for the resolution of the issue. The embargo, principles and conditions of the ceasefire, peace process that follows the summit were all open to discussion this past Sunday.  

So what’s next? 

Based on what was debated at the summit, the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) will draft a resolution in the upcoming days that will outline the decisions settled on in Berlin. First and foremost, participating nations of the summit agreed to "commit to refraining from interference in the armed conflict or in the internal affairs of Libya" and urge all international actors "to do the same". The UN arms embargo established in 2011 will be respected by all parties, while the UN and UNSC will work to monitor and investigate the violations. Consensus was reached on the necessity of disarmament, cutting the aid of weaponry, and promoting political dialogue under the auspices of the UN Support Mission in Libya. The importance of international humanitarian law and human rights law with respect to the implementation of the UNSC resolution was also emphasized during the summit. In addition, participating nations outlined that their goal of ending this irregular period in Libya could be achieved through free, fair, and credible elections. Restoration of the integral Libyan institutions, most importantly the Central Bank of Libya and the National Oil Corporation were viewed amongst the central components of the resolution of the issue.  

On a final note, it has been stated by the UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres that five military representatives appointed by Haftar and al-Sarraj will come together to engage in further discussion in Geneva in the coming days. What will remain unknown, however, is whether the parties in the conflict and other nations involved will stick to their commitments of the summit, and to what degree the ceasefire will be enforced. The Berlin summit can be regarded as a good starting point in the resolution of the war in Libya on an international scale. However, the world will see in the upcoming days the true effectiveness of the decisions taken during the peace talks.