Is France Losing Its Grip?

“Prenez un grip and donnez-moi un break,” pronounced the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, Boris Johnson, to the President of France, Emmanuel Macron, following a diplomatic feud in the wake of the AUKUS deal. The new pact, signed by the United States, the United Kingdom, and Australia, will provide Australia with cutting-edge nuclear-powered submarine technology. However, in an effort to fulfill this pact, a 2016 French submarine contract valued at around $90 billion was terminated. In addition, the recent debacle in Mali and the domestic political situation raises questions on France’s strength and whether it is effectively "losing its grip."

AUKUS is a demonstration of UK and U.S intent to build up military capabilities in the Pacific. The deal coincides with a reconsideration of U.S military strategies following the departure from Afghanistan and the Taliban takeover that subsequently followed. For the U.S, security priority is being taken to oppose the rise of China, and Australia’s involvement could be the key to this new “containment” policy. As for the UK, proving autonomous influence through military power signals global relevance post-Brexit. Losing its submarine contract is costly for France, impelling French Minister for Europe and Foreign Affairs, Jean Yves Le Drian, to call it a "stab in the back" due to little warning being given prior to the announcement of reforms. Furthermore, losing the contract undermines French engineering capabilities, suggesting that its submarines cannot meet Australia’s defence needs. The numerous delays, cost overruns, and broken promises regarding the local jobs the project would create support the conception that France could not deliver. 

Shifting the perspective to Africa, France is also facing competition from Russian mercenaries. In 2013, French forces intervened in Northern Mali, a former colony, to counter the rise of Islamist extremism. The initial operation, "Operation Serval," responded to the Malian government's request to restore control over the country. The operation concluded in July 2014, leading to a broader operation entitled “Operation Barkhane," which included Burkina Faso, Chad, and Niger as a goal to stabilize Africa’s Sahel region. Eight years later, Emmanuel Macron is facing local opposition to the conflict. According to a recent poll by IPOF and Le Point, more than half of the French population opposed the intervention. Unpopular at home, the intervention is also undesirable in Mali, where Malians call France’s presence an occupation and question the difference French soldiers make. 

France is now seeking to diminish its presence in Mali, but its retreat could further tarnish its international stature. Intending to cut current deployment in half by the end of the year, many fear that decreasing the number of French troops will create a power vacuum in the region. To make up for the loss of French soldiers, the Malian government is reportedly considering the employment of Russian mercenaries from the questionable Wagner group. The group, also operating in the Central African Republic, has been accused of human rights abuse, with the Kremlin denying any ties to the organization. The current Malian government took power following the second coup in less than a year. Some argue that the Wagner group's presence will consolidate the junta power rather than benefit the people of Mali. The direct effects of this collaboration would be the extension of Russian influence while potentially undermining France's counter-terrorism efforts and influence in the region.

While France faces diminishing influence on the global stage, its political situation at home is no better. The government of Emmanuel Macron won the 2017 presidential election in a second-round face-off against Marine Le Pen. Her party, now called the “Rassemblement National," still won 33.9% of the popular vote in the elections. Considered a far-right political party, it ran on law and order, identity politics, populism, and xenophobia. The two-round election system forces another election when no party gets 50%+1 of the votes in the first round. In the last elections, the margin of less than 3% on the first round between Le Pen and Macron shows the profound divide in French society. While a coup is highly unlikely, the call to arms from former military officers in April against what they viewed as the decline of French society reveals broader tensions inside the population.

Nevertheless, one cannot disregard France’s power. The country is one of the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council and is one of the nine countries to possess nuclear weapons. France has always sought to remain somewhat autonomous regarding its military, developing nuclear weapons independently and withdrawing from North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO) integrated military command structure. The country also recorded the eighth highest military expenditure worldwide in 2020.

While there is no doubt that France is a great military power, recent events both internally and externally have undermined its global posture. Whether it is the consequences of the AUKUS deal or its declining influence in Mali, France is facing rejection by many countries it considers allies. At the same time, in a country known for its revolutions, the rise of the far-right is a slippery slope for other isolationist policies. While France has what it takes to remain a global power, the country needs to turn its attention to resolving domestic issues and proving its relevance on the global stage. The battle the country undertook against capital punishment worldwide gives us a glimpse of the country’s global aspirations as it takes the rotating presidency of the Council of the European Union in 2022.