China's Motivations in the Disputed Jammu & Kashmir Region

On June 16th, Indian and Chinese troops clashed at the disputed Himalayan border along the region of Kashmir, leading to the death of 20 Indian soldiers and an unknown number of Chinese troops. This engagement follows another border dispute between both States, in which India accused China of moving thousands of troops and military equipment into the Galwan Valley in Ladakh, in the disputed Jammu and Kashmir region, which India regarded as its sovereign territory. Satellite images confirmed the increased deployment of Chinese troops in the region. The Chinese government quickly responded, accusing India of manipulating the facts and claiming an invasion of its national domain. Tensions between the two countries rose steadily since 2017, a year during which India built a road through Ladakh, a region China also claims. According to Chinese officials, India planned to transport military equipment to the frontier using the road with the sole mission of challenging Chinese right to this land.

All of these events gravitate around the hot spot of Jammu & Kashmir, a region under overlapping territorial claims both by India and Pakistan, and in a constant state of war since 1947. This dangerous and violent region, in which nearly a thousand people die to violence each year, has recently experienced increased Chinese involvement. To understand the Chinese interests in Jammu & Kashmir and the role China plays in the Indo-Pakistani struggle, it is necessary to examine the history of the region.

1947 marked the first Indo-Pakistani war, also known as the first Kashmir war. Although both countries were just established, they were already fighting for control over this mountainous state. The 1949 ceasefire terminated the war and led to the division of Jammu & Kashmir between Pakistan and India. However, even with the end to the hostilities, both countries still lay claim to the entirety of the region. Since that date, these two powers have fought three other wars, in 1965, 1971, and 1999, for control of Jammu & Kashmir, none of which led to any major change in the division of the region. The Kashmiri people live under a daily threat of violence, as even in the absence of a military conflict, multiple terror groups supported by Pakistan regularly carry out deadly attacks in the Indian-controlled part of the region. In return, the Indian Armed Forces retaliate, sometimes targeting civilians in reprisals.

The Chinese intervention comes into play in this context of bloody clashes and high tensions. In 1962, a border dispute between India and China escalated into a full-scale conflict, ending in a Chinese tactical victory. Both parties agreed on of the establishment of a de facto boundary, known as the Line of Actual Control. China occupied the Northwestern part of Jammu & Kashmir, called ‘‘Aksai Chin’’, which it still controls to date. However, no official border was negotiated in the disputed region, and both countries continuously seek to establish their domination by heavily militarizing the region. Pakistan saw China as a potential ally in the region that would help counterbalance the Indian military power in Kashmir. One year after the Sino-Indian war, Pakistan handed over the control of around 2,000 square kilometres of land in Jammu & Kashmir to China, and in 1972 both countries signed a strategic alliance treaty to materialise their friendship and ensure further collaboration.

Today, the region has grown in importance for China, while the deadlock between India and Pakistan persists.

The Sino-Pakistani friendship, which began as an alliance to undermine the power of India, now presents a strong and long-lasting relation of vital importance for both countries. China has become an irreplaceable partner for Pakistan, constituting 31% of its imports, 11% of its exports and, most importantly, a majority of its arms supply. Pakistan is also of vital importance in Chinese President Xi Jinping’s geopolitical strategy. As China extends its Belt and Road Initiative project around the globe, it has invested $62 billion in Pakistan to build the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). This gigantic project was designed to link the remote Chinese province of Xinjiang to the newly built Pakistani port of Gwadar, in which China has invested an additional $1 billion. The active Chinese presence in this part of the world has other economic motives than increasing trade with Pakistan. The network of pipelines built along the CPEC would allow China an easy access to oil and gas located around the Persian Gulf; a significant shortcut that would remove China’s reliance on the sea routes in the Indian Ocean and the South Pacific. However, the CPEC would not be secure if India continues to challenge the Sino-Pakistani presence in Jammu and Kashmir, through which the trade routes pass. China thus has an incentive to pacify, or dominate, this remote and mountainous province, vital for its cherished corridor. 

In face of this increasing involvement by its adversaries, India has not stayed idle. Jammu & Kashmir, although not of vital economic importance for India, encompasses many of Hinduism’s major religious sites, and is thus of great value for Narendra Modi’s nationalist government. Between 2018 and 2019, Indian military spending increased by $6 billion, and India might have as many as 230,000 troops deployed in its part of the region (although Pakistan claims this number is around 1 million). In a major shift of policy last year,  India removed article 370 from its constitution, which had given partial autonomy to the Jammu & Kashmir province for 70 years. This constitutional change, originally an electoral promise by Modi for his re-election campaign in 2019, could tighten India’s grip on the region and accentuate its militarization. The deterioration of relations between China and India could also invite the United States, which has thus far remained neutral over the Kashmir issue, to take position in support of India. As the US-China relations have floundered for the past few years, the US has bolstered its relations with India, as both countries closely collaborated to combat the COVID-19 pandemic. This recent clash at the Sino-Indian border could provide Donald Trump with a perfect justification for intervening, diplomatically or even militarily, into the Kashmir region.  

China’s stance over Jammu and Kashmir thus aligns with Pakistan’s position, and over the decades China has used force several times to press its claim against India. Xi Jinping’s will to secure the CPEC, and with it the flow of oil and gas from the Gulf States, guide the Chinese interests, which extend well beyond this region. However, determined to uphold its claim to the region, India hinders the Sino-Pakistani dominance over Jammu & Kashmir by any means necessary. As tensions escalate between these three powerful nations, the conflict becomes more likely to spread and involve other foreign powers, with a likely rise in the death tolls.