Will the Coronavirus Halt China’s Belt and Road Initiative?
The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), or One Belt One Road, launched in 2013, was China’s plan to dominate global trade and become the geopolitical superpower of the 21st century. Through massive infrastructure projects, such as the construction of the Gwadar port in Pakistan or the high-speed railway network in Thailand, China’s goal was to unite countries in Asia, Europe and Africa through a well-connected community. This project would give China an easy access to foreign natural resources and place it at the core of an economic alliance that could one day compete with its North American rival. Scheduled to be completed in 2049 for the 100th anniversary of the People’s Republic of China, the BRI involves a spending of more than 4 trillion USD, making it one of the largest infrastructure projects in history.
The coronavirus outbreak in December 2019 has dramatically altered China’s plans for its expansion and has compromised the BRI’s development. On the supply level, most Chinese construction projects abroad have been put on hold, as they face a serious shortage of resources and labour. Indeed, most materials used for these infrastructures are provided by Chinese companies, which have been unable to deliver due to the country-wide shutdown. Chinese workers, who represent a disproportionate amount of the labour employed on the construction sites, have also been recalled to be quarantined in their home country. On the demand level, Chinese exports have plummeted, with a 17% drop in its exports for the first quarter of 2020. As trade routes around the world become less and less frequented, the need for new infrastructure became less urgent for China’s partners in the Belt and Road Initiative. Consequently, multiple promising projects, such as the Jakarta-Bandung railway, scheduled to be opened in 2021, have been suspended.
The suspension of BRI comes at a moment when Xi Jinping’s global strategy has already been faltering. In 2019, Chinese investments in foreign countries had dropped 40% compared to the previous year, a worrying sign for the overstretched funds of this gigantic project. The BRI also faces serious opposition domestically, as it is becoming increasingly unpopular amongst the Chinese population. Seven years after its launch, BRI is considered as an unnecessary endeavour by many people, costing precious money and time of the central government. This lack of enthusiasm has also spread to Xi Jinping’s financial support, as the BRI has been seriously lacking foreign investors to fund its operations.
As the COVID-19 outbreak has relegated the One Belt One Road Initiative to a second order importance, nothing indicates that this costly project will be in line with the post-COVID reality, much to Beijing’s despair. According to Daniel Russel, Vice President at the Asia Society Policy Institute (ASPI), despite the high interest in infrastructure projects, virtually no country will have sufficient funds to dedicate to the BRI once the pandemic has been contained and controlled. High levels of debt, investment in healthcare programs and the likely threat of an economic downfall will constitute more pressing matters for its member states, and China’s aspirations might stay at a standstill for several more years.
Moreover, as the sanitary situation has improved in China, its international image has considerably worsened, stained by allegations of mishandling the COVID-19 outbreak and, most recently, by President Trump’s accusations of having artificially created this virus in a state-owned laboratory. Such allegations, added to China’s proclaimed responsibility for being the first epicentre of the outbreak, are fertile ground for the anti-China movement that has spread throughout Western countries, most of which who were already firmly opposed to the BRI. Led by the US and generously sustained by Donald Trump, this movement could lead to a united front to halt Chinese ambitions, and perhaps swing the opinion of the international community against its flagship project.
Despite the difficult situation it is facing, the Communist Party seems determined to keep its signature project afloat, as many countries still regard it as an exceptional opportunity for development. Beijing has made good on reassuring its commitment to this project to its allies, ensuring that its present state would only be a short-term upheaval. The BRI has succeeded in gathering a Eurasian economic community of more than 100 countries, which serves now as a powerful asset for Xi Jinping’s foreign policy. To maintain its influence over this community, China now deploys a ‘face mask diplomacy’, beginning to massively ship out face masks and ventilators to foreign countries, especially to the BRI member states. Italy is one of the most notable examples: having joined China’s project in 2019, it now receives massive help from the Chinese government to control the virus, which has killed nearly 20,000 Italians in the past few months. China thus moves to position itself as the protector of its BRI partners, while Western nations such as France, Germany and especially the USA restrict their exports of medical supplies.
The future of the BRI hangs in the balance. The numerous uncertainties regarding the COVID-19 pandemic, in addition to the looming threat of a prolonged recession might discourage its member states to continue investing in this trillion-dollar project. However, China’s ambitions to dominate a "Eurasian continent", which has been at the core of its foreign policy since 2013, might be too tempting to abandon.