ASEAN: the key to EU’s transition into the new multipolar world

Globalization and technological advancements have propelled development. As new economies have entered the international landscape, western hegemony has ended. The rise of independent Global South nations such as China and India has undeniably changed the world order. In this new multipolar realm where dependencies and bilateral relations multiply, countries and organizations must adapt their foreign policies to new power dynamics to avoid being left behind. Protectionist trends and financial pessimism have put the European Union at risk of isolation. To avoid this, the EU needs to strengthen its partnerships with new actors such as ASEAN to integrate new power structures and benefit from advanced cooperation with one of the fastest-growing regions of the world.

Today, the European Union faces major challenges. Its overall economy is contracting. The European Commission has recently delivered shrinking growth predictions of less than 1.5% for 2024, to 1.2% by 2027. The European Central Bank has raised interest rates to combat stubborn inflation linked to the pandemic and the Ukraine war, reaching a record 4% deposit rate in September 2023 subsequently threatening investments. Large inequalities persist in the Union, mostly resulting from the failed “Big Bang” integration approach in Eastern European countries in the 2000s. The drastic liberalist shift imposed on former socialist economies to catch up to Western Europe did not allow for institution-building and gradual change, leaving deep disparities in several sectors. These divergences hinder unity around important concerns regarding immigration, labour shortages and public spending. As a consequence, populism and protectionism have been on the rise, further threatening economic efficiency through retaliation or downward spirals of government support. This could be particularly salient in the European EV industry as the EU seeks to secure supply chains now heavily dependent on Chinese materials.

However, nothing is lost yet. The EU remains one of the most stable economic hubs in the world, with leading economies in innovation such as Germany. European politicians must find unity again and continue looking outwards as they have been doing, juggling national security with competitiveness. Instability and protectionist trends in the USA coupled with the uncertainty around the upcoming elections represent an opportunity for the EU to decrease its reliance on the superpower and become a more active and independent trade partner for countries across the globe. 

Today, the power transfer from West to East has put the Asia-Pacific region at the centre of geopolitical debate. Europe has the opportunity to become a prominent actor in this stage and avoid potential isolation by taking advantage of its natural closeness with ASEAN, as both are the most advanced regional organizations in the world.

Created in 1967, ASEAN is now the third-largest economy in Asia. Among its members are fast-growing potential Asian giants such as Indonesia and Vietnam, totalling more than 350 million people. The EU is already ASEAN’s largest trading partner after China and the US as of 2021. 

Today, the US-China rivalry has reached its paroxysm, endangering ASEAN centrality and unity in the region through diverging partnerships and security concerns, especially in the South China Sea. While countries such as Cambodia mainly rely on Beijing, others like Singapore benefit from free trade agreements with both powers. Diverging interests have made coordinating a united foreign policy difficult for ASEAN, with Vietnam needing to resort to international arbitration in 2013 after a failed ASEAN consensus on South China Sea disputes. On the other hand, the Ukraine war has weakened Russia’s important influence in the region, through a huge fallback on weapons sales and business constraints. ASEAN leaders have expressed on many occasions the importance of the union’s non-alignment, as mentioned by Indonesia’s president Jokowi in 2022: “ASEAN must (...) not be a proxy (for) any powers.”

This geopolitical situation is a unique opportunity for the EU to further integrate South-East Asia. China’s expansionist policies through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and Biden’s no-show at the ASEAN summit in September could give the European Union a preferential role in the region now as ASEAN members may want to progressively hedge against the US-China rivalry and diversify their economic relations. This can already be seen with the implementation of free trade agreements between the EU and Singapore and Vietnam respectively in 2019 and 2020.

In 2022, during the symbolic ASEAN-EU meeting in Brussels, the Europeans announced the launching of the $10 billion Global Gateway project for ASEAN, an apparent alternative to the Chinese BRI, through infrastructure investments and economic integration. The initiative serves ASEAN's goals of building an “ASEAN-led regional architecture” as mentioned in the ASEAN-EU plan of action of 2023-2027. While ASEAN could reaffirm its neutrality and unity, as well as disengage from the US-China rivalry by partnering up with the EU, the latter would also largely benefit from such relations. 

Strengthening linkages with South-East Asian economies through free trade agreements and development aid would allow the EU to access one of the fastest-growing markets in the world. While FTAs have been concluded bilaterally between the EU and ASEAN members, negotiations are ongoing to implement an EU-ASEAN free trade agreement. This would help mitigate inflation and economic decline, through cheaper trade flows, renewed investment opportunities and technological cooperation with advanced hubs such as Singapore. 

This new multipolar world has created a fundamental need for more equitable cooperation. It appears that globalization has engendered a shift from political and economic clientelism to diversification of bilateral partnerships, through enhanced institutions and connectivity. Exclusive clientelism as we have known it in the past in post-colonial relations is crumbling as can be seen in Niger or Burkina Faso. The integration of formerly excluded Global South nations into the global economy has increased their power and autonomy in carrying out foreign policy. As a result, competition for partnerships has risen, especially in dynamic areas such as South-East Asia.

European nations need to revise their formerly patron-client relationships in the world–now  rivaling with nations such as China or Turkey in Africa for instance–if they want to safeguard their foreign interests.

Smaller countries within Europe cannot compete on their own. If not united, even powerful European nations such as Germany or France will progressively lose ground to rising actors such as China. The EU needs to find unity. The less cooperative will remain isolated from the world, bearing a great cost. This is the threat brought upon by protectionist trends. Stronger involvement with ASEAN would help the EU regain confidence and play a key role in global affairs, perhaps defeating inward-looking tendencies. Europeans need to use these turbulent times which greatly favour their rapprochement with South-East Asia to accelerate cooperation with ASEAN and integrate the new multipolar world as a proactive organism.