Will 2015’s Strategy Deliver Another Majority?

The Federal Liberals ran a successful campaign in 2015, winning 184 of the 338 seats available (a net pickup of 150). As the 2019 race draws near, it is essential to consider how the party achieved such ascendancy and their approach to repeat their previous success. The politically strategic play will be to focus on elements of the government’s record that were positive, while minimizing pieces that were negative. Externally, the Liberals are framing the election as a choice between their “sunny ways” or a return to the Harper years (despite the previous Prime Minister being politically inactive these past four years).   

In 2015, the party’s platform centred on: “investing in the future”, “helping the middle class”, and “[running an] honest, open government”. The government’s record suggests expenditure and taxation policies consistent with 2015 promises; however, the notion of a transparent regime is disingenuous. They delivered on spending–the 2019 budget is 10% larger than the 2015 outlay. Additionally, federal taxes have increased by 4% for individuals earning more than approximately $200,000. Coupled with child tax credits, the middle class has benefited from additional tax revenue being funneled into social services. Nonetheless, Trudeau’s ethics violations suggest the Liberal government was unvirtuous. “In December [2017], Mary Dawson, then the conflict of interest and ethics commissioner, found Prime Minister Justin Trudeau contravened four sections of the Conflict of Interest Act in relation to vacations on a private island owned by the Aga Khan.” More recently, on August 14, the Ethics Commissioner concluded Trudeau violated the Conflict of Interest Act for interfering in the criminal prosecution of SNC-Lavalin. The Liberals have consistently used their majority in parliamentary committees to curtail the extent of inquiries into their leader’s transgressions. On September 10, the government thwarted the RCMP’s attempt to access relevant documents by citing cabinet confidently. The RCMP will temporarily suspend the investigation until after the election.  

Leading up to the election, the party will focus on leveraging their economic record and building on their climate change plan. Economic prosperity and environmental action are often seen as mutually exclusive phenomena. The Liberals offer a balanced approach for achieving both feats. 

Strong GDP numbers and low unemployment rates indicate a booming economy. The party contends that continued stimulus (in the form of heightened spending) will facilitate growth, shielding the economy from a downturn. This assertion is problematic. The government inherited a strong balance sheet–after 10 years of Conservative leadership–allowing them to increase leverage, without adversely impacting their credit rating (cost of borrowing). Additionally, Canada has benefited from a generally robust global economy. These claims are predictable as incumbent parties credit themselves with economic successes, while blaming failures on their predecessors.  

Surveys indicate voters are focused on combating climate change. “Choosing forward”, the 2019 campaign slogan, suggests that voters should embrace the future by supporting an effective strategy to fight global warming. The crux of the Liberal’s plan is implementing an economy-wide price on carbon emissions known as the carbon tax. The policy was introduced earlier this year with several conservative premiers challenging the tax in court. So how does the carbon tax work? Some of the revenue is returned to individuals via tax rebates. Large corporations pay into a different system. Carbon pricing can be effective in encouraging companies to invest in technologies that limit emissions. However, “... there’s still a 79-megatonne emissions gap in meeting the Paris target under their plan”. Finding solutions to this shortfall would indicate that the party is truly committed to the environment. It is worth noting that environmentalists have rigorously criticized all parties’ climate plans, save the Greens’. 

Posturing enabled the Liberals to cannibalize much of the left (the NDP) in 2015. The party is positioning themselves in a similar fashion this election. Equating Scheer to Harper implies a Conservative government will implement policies consistent with the 2006 - 2015 era. As Trudeau says, “the Conservatives like to say they are for the people, but then they cut taxes for the wealthy and cut services for everyone else”, inferring that tax reductions and reasonable spending are undesirable for his party. This signals that the Liberals have no interest in moving more centrist or targeting the right. Current polls are consistent with this analysis, suggesting a steady conservative base over the past few months and an erosion of NDP numbers, with the Greens and Liberals as the beneficiaries. 

Will the Liberals win another majority? The party’s answer to that question is of course “yes”, because the alternative from their perspective would be catastrophic for the ordinary Canadian. The Liberals will highlight a strong economy “that works for the middle class”. They will emphasize a feasible climate plan. And they will present themselves as the only left leaning party capable of beating the Conservatives. The Liberal’s success (or failure) will be a function of their ability to downplay the hypocrisy at the essence of the campaign: the notion that their leader is a champion of the common person. Trudeau has abused his position of power to maintain this masquerade at the expense of the truth, the justice system, and Canadians. The quality of Justin Trudeau’s performance throughout the campaign will determine whether the show must go on.