Troubled Waters: Can Egypt live with Ethiopia’s Great Renaissance Dam?

The Nile River is not considered the Father of African Rivers without reason. It is the world’s longest river; originating in Lake Victoria’s Ugandan side, passing through 11 African countries, and ending in Egypt. It has two tributaries; the White Nile and the Blue Nile, where 86% of the latter passes through Ethiopian territories. It is a lifeline for hundreds of millions of people living in the Nile Basin countries; however, it is a rapidly growing fault line. Ethiopia’s plan to build a $4.3 billion hydroelectric dam has raised tensions with Egypt and Sudan over how the countries would allocate the water resources and has evolved into a proxy conflict for regional hegemony.

Ethiopia’s Great Renaissance Dam is meant to power a hydroelectric plant to support its rapidly growing economy that grew 9% last year – ranking among the fastest recorded growth rates. The dam is also set to transition Ethiopia to “imperial-era glory,” following a tumultuous era of poverty and economic decline. The dam is expected to generate approximately 6,000 megawatts of electricity that would allow Ethiopia to fuel its industries with cheap and stable power while exporting the surplus energy to neighboring countries. The Ethiopian Prime Minister is now betting on this opportunity to tip the power balance in the region. This move could very well transform the once poverty-ridden country into an energized, attractive investment market, with potential for regional hegemony.

Ancient Egyptian civilization, in its entirety, formed the basis of its modern economy on the flow of the Nile. Unfortunately, its indispensability is now severely threatened. For centuries, the large international river has been considered a lifeline for Egypt, as it is the key source of water for the 96 million denizens who are mostly squeezed along its banks. To adapt, Egypt has built a dam and artificial lakes to extract maximum benefit from the Nile, which as a result, continues to provide the country with electricity, prevents flooding, improves farming produce, decreases the level of unemployment in the agricultural sector, and is a significant tourist attraction. The Nile is the single source of livelihood for Egypt’s large population, and Ethiopia’s dam has the capacity to encroach it.

The dam is being built approximately 8 miles from the border of Sudan, which lies between Egypt and Ethiopia. Egypt is fearful that Ethiopia’s project will impact the flow downstream of the Nile River, a position echoed by Sudan. The “fill schedule” has been the largest bone of contention between these nations. Egypt wishes to extend the process to 15 years, and Ethiopia hopes to fill in the dam within the next three years. The dam filling would reduce flows downstream and, if filled too quickly, may decrease both Egypt and Sudan’s share of river water. This imposes the threat of water shortage on the Sudanese people, and although they may benefit from the dam’s hydropower, they have concerns over the shortcomings that may appear, as well as the risk of the dam collapsing. As for Egypt, it has a fixed and an increasingly stretched supply of water needed to support its rapidly growing population. Egypt relies on the Nile for approximately 97% of its drinking water and irrigation, and views the dam as an existential threat. Climate change is already adding to the pressures on the Nile’s water. A study revealed that 35% of people living along the Nile could face water scarcity in the next 20 years because of rising temperatures. To add insult to injury, Egypt is one of the two most threatened countries by rising sea levels. The Mediterranean Sea will likely inundate the Nile Delta over the next century, displacing tens of thousands of Egyptians. 

Ethiopia’s core problem in postponing the filling of the dam is fear of being unable to reap the anticipated benefits. 70% of Ethiopians now live without electricity, and the country needs the revenues from power exports. Ethiopia states that it is their right to develop and improve their country using their available resources. However, Egypt responded that “if the water means electricity for Ethiopia, it is a life-or-death matter for Egypt.” Many also argue that Ethiopia has tremendous wind and solar energy potential. This dam is not necessary for them to obtain electricity, and that this is simply an attempt to gain regional power.

Egypt has appealed to the United Nations Security Council, the Arab League and, numerous states to pressure Ethiopia to reach an agreement regarding the use of water from the Nile. The Director of North Africa described this appeal as a “nuclear option from the Egyptian perspective” and that they want to maximize pressure and “diplomatic isolation” on Ethiopia. There have been numerous rounds of negotiations to resolve this dispute. Still, there remain disagreements on whether the resolution they draw will be legally binding, as Egypt and Sudan ask for a binding accord, while Ethiopia searches for flexibility. The U.S has attempted to mediate negotiations, and although it seemed like progress was being made, Ethiopia suddenly backed out of talks, causing U.S. President Donald Trump to suspend aid sent to Ethiopia, and even suggest that Egypt destroy the dam should it be completed before a treaty is signed. This disappointed Ethiopians who found Trump’s remarks to be unrepresentative of the longstanding partnership between the U.S. and Ethiopia. Ethiopia had previously requested a delay in negotiations due to the political instability in Sudan, after a regional coup led by retired officers was thwarted. 

One of the wonders of the natural world has found itself in the midst of an escalating war of words, adding but another layer to the growing conflict. Ethiopia claimed that they would proceed with filling the reservoir with or without reaching an agreement. Egypt replied by threatening to undertake “all available means to defend the interests of their people” and have pointed to past treaties granting it and Sudan a dominant role in managing most of the river’s water. Ethiopia did not respond well to this aggression and warned of a retaliation “if there were any attacks on the dam” and rejected the treaties as a “legacy of British Colonialism.” The option of going to war over the Nile waters is entrenched in the subconscious of the Egyptians who depend heavily on the river for survival. Sudan is stuck in the middle between celebrating the cheaper hydropower that would be made available and the possibility of the endarngering rights resulted by the water shortage. Ethiopia remains isolated, making the threat of war an impending possibility.

The Nile River has long united and divided the countries that share it. Egypt and Ethiopia’s long-standing Nile rivalry has created a sense of unease in the region. All advances made under U.S. mediation will be irretrievably lost unless an agreement is urgently reached between the two African nations. Egypt, along with its international supporters’ help, must provide Ethiopia with financial incentives to abate the fill schedule of the dam, which will offset Ethiopia’s opportunity costs and provide Egypt much necessary time to improve its water consumption practices and management. The U.S. pressure on Ethiopia may lead to last-minute concession and consequently, a diplomatic solution.