The UAE-Israel Peace Accords Mark a Paradigm Shift in the Middle East

“HUGE breakthrough today” tweeted Donald Trump on August 13th to announce the new and normalised relations between the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Israel. Ironically dubbed a “peace deal”, the two nations have never been at war. This is not to say, however, that there was no bitterness between the nations, but rather that this erstwhile adversary exists only by proxy, through the decades-long Israel-Palestine conflict. Nonetheless, the two nations have maintained clandestine diplomacy for many years and an official ease in the UAE’s once-hardline stance on the conflict, followed by that of Bahrain, suggests that the focal point of Gulf nations might be experiencing a shift from Israel and towards Iran. Despite Palestine, Iran, and Turkey’s bashing of the deal, the rapid normalization of ties is an economically and politically expedient step for both parties.

The two nations have proven successful in integrating newcomers into their economies for the purpose of expansion and diversification. In doing so, they were able to evolve into security and market states, making them prime models for neoliberal development. On this account, the accord gives hope for a surge in scientific collaboration; presenting opportunities for joint research in numerous fields, such as water, space, archaeology and food security.

For proponents of the current Israeli administration, normalizing relations with the UAE is considered to be a true and substantial achievement; the latter remains oil-driven, and a major petroleum and finance center that can offer lucrative investment and business opportunities for the country. Not only that, but this agreement lessens Israel’s regional isolation, strengthens their role at the center of the anti-Iran coalition and acts as a buffer to counter Iran’s military and nuclear power. Recently, there has been a shift in paradigm that occurred with the Arab Gulf states refocusing their attention from Israel and towards Iran. It is safe to assume that without Iran’s growing security threat to the Gulf, such rapid normalization of relations would not have occurred. To this effect, the enemy of an enemy is a friend; making this a marriage of convenience.

Similarly, the UAE showed no hesitation in signing the deal and were criticised by some for being hasty. One explanation may be that the UAE sees this relationship as a contingency instrument for times of uncertainty, as well as a way to get under the US security umbrella. This deal also strengthens the UAE’s regional position within the Middle East and may accelerate its intentions of regional hegemony. It was disclosed by a high-ranking UAE official that the US had promised the Emiratis F-35 Stealth Jets upon normalizing relations with Israel, revealing that not only a peace deal but an arms deal had been reached. This led people to believe that the motive for the UAE to sign the accord was “not to bring peace to the Middle East, but to ensure that it is armed to its teeth.” While the UAE claims that the accord was pursued in the name of preventing the annexation of Gaza and the West Bank, in reality, said plans have not only been temporarily suspended due to the COVID-19 pandemic. However, Prime Minister Netanyahu has formally stated that annexation “isn’t off the table and will be back on the agenda.”

A deal with the UAE could be Israel’s gateway into the largest economy in the Middle East, and arguably one of the most powerful Arab states: Saudi Arabia. Whether or not the kingdom chooses to follow suit, however, remains a topic of debate. According to the writers of the Wall Street Journal, there is a substantial disagreement within the Saudi Royal family over whether or not they should embrace Israel. This is a particularly complicated peril since Saudi Arabia is the country that founded the Arab Peace Initiative (API), as a consensus between Arab states to normalize relations with Israel, only in exchange for a full withdrawal of Israel to the 1967 Oslo Accord borders. While King Al-Saud is a longtime supporter of this boycott, the Prince Mohammad Bin Salman finds the Arab-Israeli conflict intractable and sees more benefit in joining Israel in businesses and gaining an ally against Iran. Saudi Arabia is already engaged in a proxy war with Iran in Yemen, which aggravated relations between the two countries. However, it is important to recognize that the Arab Gulf principalities, the UAE and Bahrain, would not have publicly normalized decades worth of clandestine relations with Israel without the approval of Saudi Arabia; the ‘leader’ of Arab states. 

The fact that this deal was announced and signed in Washington DC, thousands of miles from both UAE and Israel, is a clear indication that this was an attempt at rescuing Trump’s electoral campaign and improving Bibi’s battered image within Israel, due to his indictment on corruption charges, shaky coalition, mishandling of the COVID-19 pandemic, and the substantial increase in the unemployment rate to 27%. This accord also allows the US to deepen its foothold in the region through new powerful allies, ultimately strengthening its position before Iran. With the presidential election rapidly approaching and greater odds leaning towards Joe Biden, it is expected that Trump would rush the UAE and Israel in settling an accord. A change in the office, especially that of a republican to a democrat, will lead to a shift in policy. This also implies that both the UAE and Israel benefit from keeping Trump in office.

While Palestinians have denounced the peace agreement, this accord imposes a new reality upon them. With many Palestinians still living in territories incapacitated by Israeli martial law, the Arab states have started to turn their backs on the Palestinian cause. Palestine has relied on the Arab consensus for far too long, and with UAE being the first Persian Gulf country to publicize their relations with Israel, the API looks like a dead letter. It is time for Palestine to formulate their own peace plan. The divided loyalty and crippling disunity within Palestinian factions politically paralyzes Palestine and weakens the Palestinian Authority, giving Israel the upper hand in negotiations. With this being said, national elections might be the only opportunity for the Palestinian Authority to maintain a credible position on the negotiation table. Should a new peace deal be devised by the Palestinians, there may be reason to believe that the newfound Arab alliances will use their leverage to push forth a settlement, and press Israel towards making greater concessions. President Trump has been hawkish on Palestine, cutting off aid after their immediate refusal of his Mideast Peace Plan in January. If Biden were to win the election, Palestine may find itself the ideal opportunity to push for a two-state solution, emphasizing the necessity to quickly put together a counter-offer.

The normalization of diplomatic relations with Israel is an unprecedented, important development for Gulf states UAE and Bahrain. The UAE has broken the taboo and will now serve as a precedent for other Arab Gulf monarchies who want to follow suit in formalizing ties with Israel without the prerequisite of the creation of a viable Palestinian state. Feeling betrayed by their long-time allies, Palestinian leaders must quickly react to this wake-up-call and unite to make their own peace offer, with necessary concessions, to avoid greater losses. The Arab-Israeli rapprochement arising from a shared animosity towards Iran shows that the knives are out for Tehran, marking a major paradigm shift in Middle Eastern politics.