The Split Priorities of Türkiye

Turkey recently changed its name to Türkiye, a name the current administration argues is more reflective of its values and culture, but do not let this fool you; reforms in the country stop there. Turkey is a powerful state,  ranked 19th in terms of GDP in 2020 and it also has the second-largest military force in NATO with 445,400 active military personnel. The country even has the ambition to one day join the European Union, a membership many EU countries oppose at the moment. Turkey argues that the root of some countries' opposition is pure xenophobia, namely the potential that a majority Muslim country would change the demographic landscape of the EU. The right-wing populist Identity and Democracy political group present in the European parliament went as far as to start a petition asking for the end of negotiations with Turkey, which could cause “huge and uncontrollable migration flow towards Europe." 

However, the main arguments against Turkish membership are not based on xenophobia but on its failure to meet the 1993 Copenhagen criteria, a set of political, economic and administrative requirements prospective members must satisfy. The current president of Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, occupied the position of Prime Minister since 2013 before being elected president in 2014. Following an attempted coup during his first mandate, Erdoğan held a referendum which granted him sweeping powers. Won with a 51% majority (51.41% vs. 48.59%), the results of the elections provided the president the legitimacy to name officials, including ministers and vice-presidents, intervene in the judiciary, and impose a state of emergency. By eliminating checks and balances and allowing himself to remain in power until 2029 (two mandates of five years), Erdoğan has effectively brought Turkey into a more authoritarian state of which he is the strongman. A decline of Turkish citizens’ democratic rights followed the coup attempt with more than 321,000 detained, heavy repression of journalists, human rights activists, and political opponents. Turkey also faced criticism following its withdrawal from the Istanbul Convention, aimed at protecting women from domestic violence. Meanwhile, the European Court of Human rights criticized Turkey’s blatant disregard for the rule of law in the arbitrary detention of businessman Osama Kavala and political party leader Selahttin Demitras. Last October, the European Commission declared that the Turkish adhesion to the EU was at a "standstill ."

Furthermore, the long-lasting conflict in Cyprus, following an invasion of Turkey's Northern part of the island in 1974, complicates membership talks. While the Republic of Cyprus to the South is an EU member state and has the legal authority over the entire island, the de-facto state of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus occupies the North of the island while only being recognized by Turkey. Recent disputes over maritime claims have led to EU members' condemnation of Turkey.

Turkey's current economic situation is also a hard sell for joining the European Union. The Copenhagen criteria call for a country's adherence to the EU's "aims of political, economic and monetary union However, with inflation projected to rise to 40%  in 2022 thanks to a devaluating currency and heavy reliance on imports, a future where Turkey meets the criteria for joining the Euro seems an even farther sight. With the rapid devaluation of the Turkish Lira, many Turks are seeing their life savings destroyed, with a current rate of approximately 14TRY:1USD compared to 3.5TRY:1USD five years ago. The stability of exchange rates and prices being two of the four convergence criteria, the prospect of Turkey bringing its economic legislation in line with the EU to join the Euro, seems unlikely at the moment. For now, the Erdoğan administration's response to the inflationary tendencies amounts to shooting in the dark. Contrary to modern economic theory, which argues that the best answer to inflation is raising interest rates, the Erdoğan administration has constantly been slashing interest rates, only hitting pause by mid-January. Erdoğan himself said he would "battle" interest rates to "the end," arguing that the low-interest rate will stimulate the economy and help the people. Erdoğan has also justified his decision by citing Islamic finance principles. The pressure to keep rates low has not been very popular with the central bank governors, who experienced a high turnover in recent years. Who benefits from this poor economic management is unclear; however, the Turkish people as a whole are the ones who are footing the bill. Meanwhile, the country’s foreign reserves are plummeting. A missing $128 billion of foreign reserve money was supposedly used to prop up the lira in 2019 and 2020, but the opposition argues those funds are unaccounted for and could have been used for corruption. The government has been trying various schemes to address the economic situation and restore confidence in the Lira, from buying gold off Turkish citizens to protecting people's savings from currency devaluation by topping off their accounts.

While not a super-power, the country has global relevance due partly to its ability to balance its interests. Regarding its energy needs, Turkey is mainly dependent on natural gas coming from Iran, Azerbaijan, and Russia. With Iranian natural gas accounting for 16% of its supply during the first ten months of 2021, Turkey can keep politics aside when dealing with its trade partners. While playing both sides could be beneficial for Turkey in the short term, its loyalty could eventually be questioned. Recently, the Erdoğan administration bought S-400 surface-to-air missiles from Russia and is even considering buying more. The move angered Washington and led to Turkey being kicked out of the F-35 program. At the same time, Turkey sold drones to Ukraine, used in the Donbas region against pro-Russian separatists, a move the Kremlin described as "destructive ."Furthermore, the country has been a strong advocate for Ukraine's NATO bid and supportive of Ukraine's "territorial integrity," a direct reference to the Russian annexation of Crimea.

Turkey is in a fragile position; it relies on the EU for trade, on the US and NATO for security, and Russia and Iran for energy. While this geopolitical position is the result of its geography, authoritarian drifts and gross economic mismanagement are truly holding the country back. As the current situation makes EU membership almost far-fetched, the first step in this direction can be at the Turkish general election on June 18, 2023. Erdoğan party’s loss in the local elections of Ankara and Istanbul could be illustrative of the slowly shifting political landscape, a united opposition could be a challenge for Erdoğan. While the Erdoğan administration is making the economic situation worse, the people of Turkey are ultimately the ones that must hold the current administration accountable. At the moment, Türkiye needs much more than simply a name change, while it may seem easier than democratic and economic reforms.