The Perils of a Minority Government

 History suggests minority governments fail; governing is constrained by power dynamics and political calculus. The Canadian Federal election is rapidly approaching and current polls suggest a plurality is probable, with the Liberals and Conservatives in a tight race. Winning the most seats (but not greater than 50%) would be undesirable for both parties. However, Canadians would bear the greatest costs. A partnership between Trudeau and Singh is the most plausible scenario. A minority Scheer government is unlikely as no party has expressed interest in working with the Tories.  

Coalitions and minority governments usually complicate the legislative process as they consist of parties with divergent agendas. The arrangements lie on a spectrum: coalitions are formal binding agreements between parties while minority governments are supported by harmonious voting on confidence bills. The latter is more common than the former in Canada. The priority–which aligns the government–is self-preservation. Little else, in the form of new laws, is achieved. “The normal pattern is for the minority government to limp along for a short period and then collapse, forcing the country back to the polls.”  The last Canadian minority was formed in 2008, it lasted three years (less than the typical full-term government).  

Throughout the campaign the Liberals and Conservatives have retained approximately 30-35% of the popular vote, respectively. The NDP was a distant third until Jagmeet Singh’s strong performance in the English and French language debates in early October. The NDP is now roughly 15% behind the two front runners. Regionally, the Grits have a narrow lead in Ontario, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada; the Tories are ahead in the west. Success in Quebec–which holds 75 seats–would likely deliver a Liberal or Conservative majority. However, a recent surge in the Bloc’s support suggests the Liberals, Conservatives, and NDP may all lose MPs in la belle province. The NDP has the potential to make gains outside of Quebec.  

If the Liberals do not win enough seats to form a majority government, the NDP would be a natural ally. Both parties consider themselves progressives; and, Singh has stated he would never prop up a Conservative government. However, the NDP’s support would be conditional on significant policy concessions. The party’s platform is centred on economic reform. Their plan is to raise corporate, capital gains, and income taxes to partially finance massive deficits (projected at $32.7 billion for the 2020 - 2021 fiscal year). Such an approach is short-sighted and foolish. Raising taxes slows the economy by discouraging business investment and consumer spending. (It is also worth noting that Canada already has high corporate and income taxes). Corporations may even relocate to other jurisdictions to avoid these punitive levies. The wealthy, and in fact all investors, will attempt to adjust their portfolios to minimize the impact. Tax revenues will fall, debt will increase, and growth will slow. This combination–coupled with a weakening global economy–is troubling. Despite these policies being further left than the Liberal platform, the party will have little choice but to embrace them. Trudeau’s resistance to resign after multiple ethics violations implies that he will take the necessary measures to stay at 24 Sussex Drive. Even if that means embracing a mandate based on unintelligible economics.  

An alternative electoral outcome is the Conservatives winning the most seats, and possibly the popular vote, while not being able to form government. Analysts have contended that the Tories and the Bloc could form an alliance, but this is unlikely given their vastly contrasting platforms. The Bloc’s is fixated on Quebec (they do not run candidates outside the province) while the Conservatives are federalists. Being unable to form government would be undesirable for a democracy and elucidate flaws in Canada's first-past-the-post system. This outcome could heighten tensions between eastern and western Canadians. In addition, the country’s resource sectors could be adversely impacted. “Westerners [would] be deeply angry [if] voters in Greater Toronto and Montreal once again went Liberal, ignoring the West. And if the Liberals agree to abandon the Trans Mountain pipeline in exchange for NDP support, the fracture in national unity could be critical.”  But, not surprising. Trudeau would surely break a commitment to Alberta in exchange for the Prime Ministership.﷟HYPERLINK "https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-if-current-polling-numbers-hold-we-will-have-a-minority-government-in/" 

Trudeau is likely to remain in power because the Liberals have potential allies, while the Conservatives do not. If a minority government is formed, Canadians should be dissatisfied. The outcome will favour the few voters who endorsed the party which holds the balance of power. Their views will be echoed in the legislation passed by a Liberal government. A government that is disingenuous in its actions, held hostage by politicians with the power to make it crumble with a “yea” or “nay”.