The Future of Airlines and Jet Fuel: A Carbon Conundrum
For the last two decades, airlines have made great strides to offset their carbon dioxide (Co2) emissions. Presently, the airline industry accounts for 12% of transportation emissions and nearly 5% of global Co2 emissions per year. This resounding number has galvanized the industry to find jet fuel alternatives and decrease pollution across the whole value chain.
In just 20 years, WestJet reduced Co2 output by nearly 50%, mainly through sustainable alternatives and more efficient routes that reduce flight time. Delta airlines, a direct competitor, committed $1 billion over the next decade to meet its triple bottom line: profit, people, and planet. The firm aims to leverage carbon offsets by investing in carbon-reducing projects, such as tree planting programs and divestitures from oil refineries.
These actions have satisfied many shareholders, but there is one key counterpoint that is often concealed: the increase in the number of flights around the world. From 1960 to 2017, yearly passengers skyrocketed from just 100 million in the air to over four billion worldwide. This 4000% rise more than offsets the 50% decrease in Co2 emitted per aircraft, and airlines know this well. The immense upsurge is the driver behind firms continuing to pledge carbon neutrality while at the same time implementing flight techniques to decrease costs and increase carbon emissions. Recently, British Airways announced a $400 million investment into sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) and partnered with provider firms to attempt carbon neutrality by 2050. However, within the same year, the airline exploited “fuel tankering,” a cost-cutting measure where planes carry extra fuel and emit more carbon in a trade-off to minimize refueling costs. As governments begin to curtail the airline industry's precious carbon, the sector is in dire need of a more environmentally-friendly energy source.
Recent surges in global battery usage have propelled airlines to attempt creating their own electric vehicles (EVs) in the hopes of meeting their triple bottom lines. That being said, one of the most significant impediments for battery EVs at the aviation scale is the extensive trade-off between energy produced and weight per battery. A lithium-ion battery’s energy density is approximately 48 times less potent than typical jet fuel, indicating considerable room for improvement before batteries become a legitimate substitute. Despite these technological hindrances, Harbour Air Seaplanes, the largest seaplane airline in North America, has completed several short trips with its own EVs. In 2019, the Vancouver-based charter airline began collaborating with MagniX, an electric motor manufacturer backed by NASA’s lithium-ion batteries, and has grown exponentially since. Further, two Ph.D. students at the Cockrell School of Engineering at The University of Texas recently discovered a method to reduce cobalt in lithium-ion batteries by implicating a more extensive mix of nickel within the batteries’ makeup, which in turn provides increased energy storage. However, even with the plethora of groups worldwide continuing to research and develop more robust battery technologies, large-scale vehicle electrification is most likely still decades away for the airline industry.
As battery EV implementation remains speculative, a less sustainable but presently feasible energy alternative has been at the core of many airlines’ carbon-cutting initiatives: sustainable aviation fuel. It is a flourishing substitute made up of more sustainable materials such as oats, biomass, and municipal solid waste, compared to refined kerosene in traditional jet fuel. Unlike batteries, producers can combine this alternative with jet fuel without adjusting the fuel supply chain, making it the most efficient carbon cutback option. Specifically, SAF can provide a carbon reduction of up to 80% compared to traditional fuel depending on the feedstock used.
Airlines are increasingly implementing SAF to achieve their carbon neutrality goals. Companies like Air France, KLM, and others on the North Atlantic have joined forces to create an SAF program. Bolloré, a French transportation company, looks to cut at least 50% of its Co2 emissions through this initiative. These optimistic outlooks still come at a hefty price, but many hope the burdens placed on the airline industry will encourage clean fuel policies from national authorities to help subsidize costs. Moreover, if government incentives or carbon penalties do arise over time, airline SAF demand will quickly rise, which will ultimately spur competition and reduce sustainable fuel prices. One Chicago-based producer, LanzaJet, has already begun competing as an SAF producer, partnering with Calgary-based Suncor Energy in the hopes of becoming a leading sustainable fuel provider.
The last alternative energy source for jet fuel is hydrogen fuel cells. This method happens to be the most sustainable but least feasible substitute because it creates electricity through an electrochemical reaction rather than burning fossil fuels. Unlike batteries that are heavy and need recharging, fuel cells can perpetually generate electricity as long as there are continual hydrogen sources. This is much easier to provide at mass since hydrogen, especially in liquid form, is significantly lighter. Once again, this jet fuel substitute is still decades away from large-scale implementation. In 2019, Airbus began unveiling concepts for domestic flights viable for up to 200 passengers. However, hydrogen R&D requires extremely expensive investments, resulting in scepticisms about Airbus’s endeavor. Even Boeing, Airbus’s largest competitor, believes that hydrogen technology for aircraft is still decades away and has diverted towards SAF, a more realistic route for modern sustainable energy sources.
As noted earlier, one of the most significant obstacles for jet fuel substitutes is the expensive R&D investment required to create economies of scale. The remnants of Covid-19 and its incessant regulations continue to reduce consumer demand, as the airline industry remains deficient in free cash flow and, in turn, unable to make those investments. As a result, many aviation projects and carbon-neutral targets will be delayed. While the pandemic continues to depress demand, airlines and researchers worldwide must act quickly in solving one of the most exigent sustainability challenges of our time – before shareholders become frustrated and governments begin imposing harsher carbon regulations.