The Coronavirus Outbreak: How Worried Should You Be?

With the World Health Organization (WHO) declaring a global health emergency and the US Centers for Disease Control declaring a national emergency, there has been increasing concern about the “novel coronavirus” that has lately dominated the news.  Most of us have heard so much about it, but how much do we really know? Are people too worried, or perhaps not worried enough? 

Just like any other topic that has “broken the internet,” misinformation concerning it is more than easy to diffuse across virtual platforms. Most of us are probably too anxious about it, or simply concerned for the wrong reasons. This stresses the importance of reaching out to viable and reliable sources to keep oneself informed. 

So, what is the “novel coronavirus”? While the general coronavirus might be the cause of a common cold, the one that suddenly appeared in Wuhan, China is not similar, although symptoms, including fever, coughing, and shortness of breath, may seem comparable. The reason why the 2019-nCov is a called a “novel virus” is because it originated from an animal carrier and spread to a human through the auto-mutation of the virus, and the cure for it remains unknown. 

This virus is part of a larger pattern of viruses that circulate in animals and eventually contaminate humans, like HIV, SARS and Ebola. The current outbreak is said to have started in a food market in Wuhan and DNA investigations have associated the virus to bats. However, statements of it originating from the famous “bat soup” have proven false, as most of the pictures were taken outside of Wuhan. Specialists, however, have suspected a correlation of the outbreak with the illegal pangolin trade. 

Before making assumptions on such significant news, it is important to consider the numbers. According to the latest statistics issued on February 11th by the WHO, there are currently 25 countries that have confirmed cases of the novel coronavirus. A vast majority of these cases are spread across 34 cities in China, which currently reports 43,708 cases and 1,017 deaths. The second and third countries to hold the largest number of confirmed cases of the virus are Singapore and Thailand, with 45 and 33 confirmed cases respectively, of which 43 have had recent travel histories to China. Only one death has been reported outside of mainland China so far, meaning the death rate is as low as 2.37%. Therefore, calling the corona virus “deadly” is an exaggeration. It is important to add that the people who have died from the virus typically had a history of medical complications and extremely weak immune systems to begin with.  

On the other hand, the fact that many cases outside of China did not have any direct relationship with Wuhan has led to the use of the word “super-spreader” to describe the virus. In fact, four of the eight cases in the UK have been associated to one person: businessman Steve Walsh, who contracted the virus at a conference in Singapore, then flew to a ski resort in France where he contaminated 5 people, before arriving to Brighton, UK where 4 people were affected as well. Further, a new report suggests that at least 500,000 people may become infected in Wuhan in the coming weeks. The regularity of international travel allows the virus to spread easily. This stresses the importance of over-sanitization. It is also important to recognize that it is not the patient’s fault, as people can be spreading the virus before they start showing any symptoms, as the virus’ incubation period may take up to two weeks.  

Although the cure remains unknown, there are ways to support the immune system in its own battle against the coronavirus, but such medical technology is only available in the most developed parts of the world, where many patients have fully recovered. For the virus not to reach regions where medical care is less advanced is what leaders should be most concerned about. As the weather in those regions is usually hotter and neighborhoods are more condensed, a catastrophic epidemic, perhaps even a pandemic, might arise and affect millions of people and very little can be done to contain it.  

Wuhan has been in lockdown for weeks now, and nobody is allowed to go in or out of the city. In addition, the government built a hospital in a little more than a week to be able to hospitalize as many people as possible; this is similar to the SARS epidemic of 2003, when China built a hospital in Beijing within a week as well.  

 Many dynamic Chinese cities, including Shanghai, have seen their daily activity slow down, as shops, offices, factories and banks have remained closed, and children haven’t returned to school yet.  

Many countries, including the US and Canada, have increased screenings at international airports and have decreased the amount of flights coming from China. In addition, foreign nationals having recently visited China are not allowed to visit during this time. Finally, citizens coming back from Hubei, in China, will be held in quarantine for fourteen days. 

Journalists and writers have on one hand been spreading anxiety and fear across the internet, mostly seeking the attention of readers. On the other hand, specialists have been trying to convey to people not to panic, but to remain alert during such a period of uncertainty, bearing in mind that the 2019-nCov might be a potential threat they should be on the lookout for, but not a crisis anywhere outside of the widely infected regions of China.