The Battle in Idlib: How Can it Change the Course of the Never-Ending Syrian War?

Nine years, 465,000 deaths, more than one million injuries, 12 million refugees, and, unfortunately, the war in Syria is still not over. Within the past few weeks, the ongoing conflict in Syria has become more heated as Syrian armed forces and their allies have launched attacks on territories near Idlib province held by the opposition forces. More specifically, the Syrian government carried attacks so as to take over the strategic M4 and M5 highways that enable the connection between the main cities in the country and that have long been a cause of tension in between opposing parties.  

The attack of the Syrian forces were backed up by an intensive aerial bombardment, leading to dozens of casualties, including the death of 13 Turkish soldiers. Additionally, thousands of civilians fled towards the Turkish border with the hope of escaping the rising tension in Idlib. The attacks prompted the Turkish Military to increase its operations in the region by deploying more troops and setting up new posts in opposition-controlled areas.  

To understand the ongoing situation in Idlib, one should understand why gaining control over Idlib and the M4 and M5 highways is crucial and how it could possibly change the course of the war. More than three million people live in Idlib, most of them being internally displaced civilians. Idlib is regarded as the home for opposing fighters and civilians, as the Syrian armed forces established control over the majority of opposition-held territories. In terms of its geopolitical location, Idlib is located next to the Latakia province, which hosts the Russian military airbase Hmeinm. Previously, in 2018, Turkish and Russian authorities agreed upon the creation of a demilitarised zone in the province of Idlib, leading to a temporary period of peace. Upon agreement, parties in the conflict began the negotiations for a permanent ceasefire that would end the war. Reopening the M4 and M5 highways for trade and movement was also decided. However, in 2019 the Syrian government forces and its Russian allies launched a new aerial and ground campaign, dishonouring the agreement. The conflict has heightened even further this week with the killings of the Turkish military personnel by the Syrian government forces, leading to a military response from Turkey.  

It can be argued that the agreement over Idlib and the demilitarised zone was never reinforced by Russian authorities. Perceiving this as a temporary solution, they triggered the Syrian regime forces to attack the demilitarized zone. Aligned with Moscow’s agenda, if the regime forces were to takeover Idlib, this would imply a defeat for the Syrian opposition and their major ally, the Turkish government. For Turkey, this would be regarded as a major setback in terms of diplomacy, domestic politics, economic resources, and human force. Turkey would be excluded from the peace negotiations in post-war Syria because of the Turkish involvement in the conflict during the past years. A regime takeover of Idlib would also result in a significant portion of Idlib’s three million civilians reaching the Turkish border and would cause further problems as Turkey might not be able to afford to host another wave of refugees, in addition to the more than 4 million it already hosts in its territory.  

The possibility of Russia besieging the armed opposition while cutting the main supply routes from Turkish territory, coupled with the recent tensions, poses a large threat for Turkey. Based on President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s explanations, Turkey seems to be desperate about preventing the complete defeat of its Syrian allies and their own Syrian operation.   

According to the statistics by the UN, the latest advance of the Syrian government forces led to 700,000 people being internally displaced, with most of them settling in the camps along the Turkish border. Currently, the number of refugees living near the border has surpassed its full capacity, reaching a total of one million people. The war in Syria should no longer be regarded as a diplomatic or military tension, as it has turned into a humanitarian catastrophe, as described by the UN. In the upcoming days, the major decisions and moves that will be made by Turkey, Russia, Syria and other parties involved in the conflict will not only determine the course of the war, but also impact the lives of millions of people residing in the camps along the Turkish-Syrian border.