Taiwan: War or Cold War?

In many ways, the Biden Administration’s foreign policy decisions are very different from its predecessors’. From the retreat of troops from Afghanistan to the distancing from Israeli and Saudi leaders, Biden seems to be shifting the focus away from the Middle East, directing it to another region: Asia, and particularly, China. With increasing tensions between the United States and China, China is likely the largest threat and the highest priority on Biden’s foreign policy agenda: China sees itself as a model, and President Biden is taking the Chinese threat seriously. The United States hopes to counter Chinese influence by uniting the free world as it did during the Cold War.

 Senior foreign policy officials from the U.S. and China had heated exchanges during a summit held in Anchorage, Alaska last month where China questioned America’s democracy model and lack of human rights, all while defending what it calls a “Chinese-style democracy”. As China prepares to overtake the U.S. in terms of nominal GDP by 2028, Chinese foreign policy focuses deeply on spreading the “decline of America” message and sentiment.

On the other side, Biden is taking the Chinese threat seriously by engaging in a strategy that is reminiscent of the Truman Doctrine: The Containment Strategy. In fact, President Biden pushed efforts to revive ‘The Quad’, short for Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, a strategy forum that includes the United States, Japan, Australia, and India, which are democracies that surround China. The extended version of Quad Plus also includes New Zealand, South Korea, and Vietnam. The goal of Quad is to try and contain Chinese influence and power. Quad held a virtual meeting in March 2021 and formalized the vision for a ‘Free and Open Indo-Pacific’, essentially launching an effort to contain China’s ambitions. 

Biden also held his first face-to-face summit this month in the White House with the Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga, where they raised concerns over Beijing’s growing maritime moves as well as its clampdowns in Hong Kong and Xinjiang. They also focused on the growing tensions over Taiwan and issued a joint statement on the security of the Taiwan Strait for the first time in more than half a century.

 Tensions around the Taiwan Strait started over 70 years ago when China became a communist country in 1949. The nationalist Republic of China (ROC) government fled to Taiwan while fighting a war with the Chinese Communist Party. The ROC continued representing China in the United Nations Security Council until 1971, when the Popular Republic of China (PRC) replaced Taiwan, as relations warmed between the United States and the PRC. Though, most countries continue to treat Taiwan as an autonomous country. After the 1980s, relations improved between the two China’s, with an important flow of goods and people. The two economies became very connected with up to one million Taiwanese citizens living in China and Taiwanese investments in mainland China reaching $60bn.

The situation evolved in 2016 when Tsai Ing-wen, a pro-independence politician, won the presidential election in Taiwan. Official phone calls were held with the United States President for the first time since 1979 and Trump later agreed to help Taiwan against the growing threats from China with weapon sales. As China continued to increase its influence over Hong Kong, Trump decided to increase U.S. support for Taiwan, signing the TAIPEI Act in 2020 with the objective of increasing the scope of US and allies’ relations with Taiwan.

As U.S.-China relations continue to deteriorate over the COVID-19 pandemic, 5G technologies, and cybersecurity, the rift is getting wider. The Chinese regime fought the Hong Kong protests of 2019 in a way that questioned the viability of the One China and the Two Systems principle that gave autonomy to Hong Kong and Macau. As Chinese influence grew in Hong Kong, Taiwanese people realized the importance of their independence, making it hard for China to achieve peaceful reunification.

China is increasing the number of missions in Taiwan’s airspace. On the 12th of April, Taiwan announced that China flew the largest number of military jets into its air defence zone (ADIZ) for a year. U.S. Admiral Aquilino told Senators in the U.S. Congress that Taiwan is China’s top priority, with U.S. commander Davidson admitting that China could invade Taiwan in the next six years. On the 26th of April, Taiwan caught a Chinese plane trying to sneak below the radar at only 30 meters. Shortly after that, Australia warned of “drums of war”.

A war in Taiwan would have disastrous consequences. Geopolitically, the U.S. would need to intervene, and a Chinese victory would signal the end of U.S. influence in Asia and beyond. Economically, a war in Taiwan would be devastating for the world since Taiwan makes 84% of the most advanced chips in the world, and TSMC’s technology is years ahead of China’s and America’s. As Taiwan preserves the Chinese religious and cultural heritage suppressed in the mainland after the communist revolution with Maoist fanaticism, a potential invasion could threaten it. 

With the U.S. and Japan pledging to strengthen the Quad alliance and collaborate on COVID vaccines to enforce the vision of a “Free and Open Indo-Pacific,” Biden is breaking with Obama-era policies by taking the Chinese threat seriously. The world can expect Biden to continue engaging with allies through summits and collaboration efforts to counter the Chinese power projection as the threat of war in the Taiwan strait continues to grow daily.