Space Exploration: How Close Are We to a Human Mars Landing?

On February 18th, 2021, after a seven-month voyage, the rover Perseverance landed on the rocky red soil of our faraway neighbour, Mars. This incredible achievement by NASA revived hopes that a crewed mission to the red planet may be possible. NASA’s achievement is not the first of its kind: days prior to Perseverance’s landing, the United Arab Emirates’ probe HOPE and China’s Tianwen-1 successfully entered Mars’ orbit. While the synchronous ground-breaking events of February 2021 excited an international momentum towards Mars’ exploration and a faith that a human landing may be possible, the reality is far more complex. 

Unfortunately, the odds of an impending human presence on Mars remain low. NASA’s space exploration program is by far the most advanced of the major space nations, and foresees a human landing by 2033. Many, however, deem this date “unrealistic” and have opted for a 2037 target instead. Other less advanced space programs such as the China National Space Administration aim to achieve this milestone by the 2050s at best. The main objective for the 2020 decade is to successfully operate a sample-return mission: sending an uncrewed mission to Mars, collect soil samples, and safely return those samples back to Earth.

If plans for a human landing on Mars are to ever falter, it is likely because getting there and back is neither a rush nor a priority for most nations, as shown by their budget spending. By 2029, the total annual world budget dedicated to Mars missions is expected to grow at a 2.54% compound annual growth rate (CAGR), compared to a 12% CAGR for missions to the Moon. Mars-related spending is also expected to stagger throughout the decade at around 6% of total space exploration funding. However, those low numbers and prolonged timelines do not signify a declining appetite for Mars’ exploration. Rather, they are the consequences of the strategy opted for by major space administrations, especially NASA. Despite being lengthy, this strategy is most likely to achieve a sustainable and durable human presence in space.

The said strategy envisions an incremental and progressive approach to space exploration, which includes but is not limited to Mars’ exploration. The first step of this strategy stresses the development of orbital infrastructure. Although the International Space Station (ISS) is the only permanent habitable spacecraft in space today, two more are under construction: the Chinese-made space station Tianhe, and the international station Lunar Gateway, a joint project between Canada, the US, the European Union and Japan which is to orbit around the Moon. Both spacecraft are due to be operational by 2024. The development of orbital infrastructure is a key preliminary step for planetary exploration; one that would allow for the continual improvement of existing space travel technologies. 

Upon establishing a solid space infrastructure with the Tianhe and Lunar Gateway stations, space agencies can focus on clearing the path to new human missions to the Moon, followed by establishing a semi-permanent human presence on the surface of the Earth’s satellite. This human lunar presence will pave the way for new activities, such as the extraction of the Moon’s many natural resources, and benefit future exploration missions to Mars and beyond through - once again - technology enhancement. Sending a crewed mission to Mars’s surface and returning it safely back to Earth poses a significant technical challenge and will require space agencies around the world to drastically improve their space travel capabilities. Renewing efforts towards the Moon is a great way to enhance our not-yet-sufficient technology to reach Mars, representing an imperative element to enable future Mars missions. The international space community has widely accepted this Moon-to-Mars strategy.  Thus, it comes as no surprise that more than 50 of  the 130 space exploration missions planned for the 2020 decade will be directed to the Moon.

Space exploration is expensive. The aforementioned Perseverance mission cost a total of 2.9 billion USD, and it is still only the third most expensive Mars mission undertaken by NASA. Such costs take an immense toll on national space budgets, which are naturally constrained by other expenses. Major space agencies like NASA or the European Space Agency (ESA) must reserve part of their annual spending for the maintenance of the ISS and, most importantly, to frequent cargo and crew transportation missions to orbit. These supply missions will inevitably increase in the coming years as the Tianhe and Lunar Gateway stations become operational and strain space budgets even further.

To remedy this situation and free up funds, NASA has chosen a progressive approach to privatize transportation services in the Earth’s orbit. By subcontracting such services to companies like Northrop Grumman, Boeing and SpaceX, it hopes to grow the increasingly important space industry and achieve economies of scale that could support its efforts to reach Mars and beyond. NASA envisions this privately-ran “marketplace” in the Low Earth Orbit (LEO) to be fully functional by 2025. Over the long term, NASA would implement  a clear administrative division between the Earth’s orbit, in the hands of companies, and deep-space, managed by public administrations. However, this private-focused approach preached by NASA does not make unanimity among the international community. The ESA and Russia would like to see much more oversight and control of national space agencies over orbital activity instead of delegating it to private companies. Moreover, many find the 2025 window for full private control of the LEO unrealistic, despite NASA’s best efforts.

Despite such disagreements, the strategy for space exploration in the years to come is quite clear: in order to conquer faraway planets, facilities and technology must be improved. Enhancing facilities and technology means expanding orbital infrastructure, progressively improving space travel technologies, and adopting an incremental approach that would not only allow for space exploration, but a sustainable human space presence.

A human Mars landing may not be close, but it does not mean that space nations see no interest in it. Rather than precipitating a mission that would not achieve much in the long term, they have adopted a strategy that, while slower, will enhance space travel and take the possibility of a human presence in space to a whole new level. As we once again reach out to the stars, this new era of space conquest will be more durable, more effective, and bring us farther than ever before.

Larrea Brito, Natalia. “Prospects for space exploration: An economic and strategic assessment of the space exploration sector.” Euroconsult, 129 p.