Populism & COVID-19: From Resurgence to Self-Destruction

Over the past few years, the emergence of right-leaning populism posed serious threats to democratic systems. Populist leadership tends to adhere to the following characteristics: accusing elites of being corrupt and claiming that the public needs better representation, but it has a few policy promises beyond that. They undermine the judicial system, press, and intelligence services in a systematic way. Furthermore, they discriminate against marginalized people based on various factors such as gender, race, age, and immigration status. With its resurgence, populism mainly gets mentioned because it undermines democratic institutions. However, in today’s pandemic world, the reality is much grimmer since populists leaders systematically mismanaged the response to COVID-19. In the face of a completely unfamiliar health crisis, populism lost support all over the world as a growing number of people have come to see it as a threat to democracy.

Today’s political dynamics indicate that, before the pandemic, populist politics had gained momentum in numerous countries. Turkey under Erdogan could be an apparent example where populism resulted in an illiberal democracy– a governing system in which, due to a lack of civil rights, citizens are kept in the dark regarding the actions of authority figures. The numbers released by the Turkish Government regarding COVID cases were not reliable and did not concur with the records from hospitals or cemeteries in Turkey. In the beginning of the pandemic, Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality would release the official daily coronavirus death toll for the city, which was higher than the nation-wide numbers claimed by the government. Without an accurate account of the number of domestic COVID‐19 cases, it is impossible to understand the national and worldwide impact of the pandemic. The difference in transparency regarding health data conveys the stark difference between a democratic leader, Istanbul's Mayor Imamoglu, and a populist figure, Turkish Health Minister Koca who is from the cabinet of Erdogan. Populism saw a rise in Europe too as Poland under Morawiecki and Italy under Salvini suggests. While the Polish president implemented patriotic, welfarist, and culturally conservative policies, Salvini, the anti-immigration Lega party's leader, blamed immigrants for the country's poor economic performance. These movements have also gained momentum in Brazil under Jair Bolsonaro. The Brazilian president, who has promised to repeal environmental regulations, restrict abortions, and relax gun-control laws, is perhaps one of the most prominent far-right populists. The nationalist impulses and religious-infused policies of these leaders resulted in the demonization of marginalized communities, government failure, and most importantly, resistance to international cooperation, which is essential to combat crises like pandemics. Unfortunately, populist rhetoric persists, and these politicians continue to criticize formal institutions and experts, jeopardizing democratic systems.

As evidenced by the pandemic, however, leaders' mismanagement of the COVID crisis has reduced the popularity of populism. These leaders initially downplayed the public health issue, casting doubt on the need for the efficacy of professional responses. Because of the so-called solutions they offered, many people underestimated the severity of the issue and ignored scientific advice. For example, Bolsonaro routinely disregarded medical advice and described the virus as "a minor flu." As a result of pandemic-related health outcomes, as well as inconsistent government responses, the need for stability increased. The public currently views populist politicians as untrustworthy because they were unable to provide solutions to pandemic-related challenges. Over a hundred impeachment petitions have been submitted against Bolsonaro, and according to the poll conducted in early July, a majority (54%) of respondents support Bolsonaro’s impeachment. A mutually reinforcing negative feedback loop occurred as a result of a lack of trust in leadership and an insufficient response to COVID-19. The pandemic caused a shift towards technocratic politics. For instance, EU’s foreign policy chief Josep Borrell stated that COVID-19 “brings the importance of a rational approach, expertise, and knowledge into sharp focus—principles that the populists mock or reject as they associate all of those qualities with the elite.” Facing a collective crisis has been a unifying experience that has increased public trust in science. While divided societies provide fertile conditions for populists to thrive, a united national attitude diminishes populist sentiment. 

The decreasing popularity of authoritarian leaders was made even clearer with Donald Trump’s defeat in the 2020 United States presidential election. The United States booted an authoritarian populist from power in a fair election, and political theorists predict that the populist leaders of the aforementioned countries will experience a similar situation. As the pandemic showed the negligence of populist leaders, the public will certainly start voting for politicians who make legitimate promises instead of those who shut down opposing views and see their opponents as their enemies. People will favour leaders who are ready to delegate policy choices to specialists and are devoted to democratic principles. Populists will have a much harder time making inroads when mainstream political parties differentiate themselves and become considerably more attentive to their voters’ concerns.