Moldova's Journey to EU Integration

Moldova stands at the precipice of change with its EU candidate status granted amidst the turmoil of the Russo-Ukrainian war. Could this conflict accelerate its path to integration? With aspirations high, we examine whether Moldova can align with the strict economic standards of the European Union.

Growing fear of security caused by the Russo-Ukrainian war has put pressure on the European Union (EU) to integrate Russian neighboring countries like Moldova. 

Moldova was granted EU candidate status in June 2022, marking a significant milestone on the country's path to European integration. 

For the first time since Moldova’s independence more than three decades ago, the president, the parliament, and the government are guided by the same objective of achieving a breakthrough on the European path. 

The Deputy prime minister of Moldova, Nicu Popescu, told The Economist in June 2022 that when the first Russian bombs exploded on Ukrainian soil, Moldova condemned the Russian invasion of their neighbor, stating:“Our country respects the international financial sanctions on Russia, and we voted to cast it out of several international forums.” Moldova also welcomed almost half a million refugees crossing their border as they fled the war. Some 78,000 chose to stay in Moldova, and most are hosted in private homes, not in government facilities.

During Russia's military aggression against Ukraine, the EU provided humanitarian assistance to help civilians affected by the war, allocating €13 million to Moldova. To address the economic challenges posed by the conflict, the Council decided in April 2022 to provide a new macro-financial assistance operation of €150 million to benefit Moldova.

On February 7, 2023, the European Union and the Republic of Moldova held their seventh Association Council meeting to strengthen their partnership. This meeting reaffirmed the commitment to further integration and EU membership for Moldova, acknowledging its progress and recognizing Moldova as an EU candidate country.

Later, on 23 March 2023, the European Council reaffirmed its commitment to support the Republic of Moldova on its journey to EU accession. The focus is on strengthening the country's resilience, security, stability, and economy. The European Council invited the Commission to present a support package to facilitate this process.

The EU signed a status agreement with Moldova regarding operational activities carried out by Frontex (the European Border and Coast Guard Agency), allowing the EU agency to assist Moldova with border management. Temporary trade liberalization measures were also adopted to enhance Moldovan exports to the EU.

Moldova's commitment to cooperation with the EU is evident through its implementation of agreements and reforms. The EU-Moldova Association Agreement and Visa liberalization have facilitated closer ties. Energy grid synchronization was achieved, further strengthening regional infrastructure development and energy security.

Over 75,000 Moldovans rallied in Chișinău in favor of EU membership, with the bid accelerated by Russia's war in Ukraine and amid fears of Moscow's increased pressure on the country. While almost 48% of Moldovans say they would vote in favor of EU membership, almost 34% say they prefer closer alignment with the Eurasian Economic Union led by the Russian Federation. 

Russian political clout is tangible, pro-Russian politicians won an election for governance in Gagauzia in May 2022. President Sandu's allegations of Russian attempts to instate a Kremlin-aligned government exacerbate tensions. Another complicating factor is Transnistria's (a pro-Russian region) stance and its Russian military support, coupled with free natural gas and pension money, hinder Moldova's control over its territory, challenging its EU membership ambitions. 

Moldova's journey to EU integration is marked by resilience, commitment, and a deep-seated aspiration to align with European values and standards. The path may be long as the target year is 2030 and challenging as the list of requirements to join the EU is long, but Moldova's dedication to democratic principles and its unwavering resolve to embrace the European family make it a compelling candidate for EU membership. 

But is Moldova really ready to integrate the European Union?

According to the statistics collected by The World Bank published in October 2023, despite showing robust economic growth over the last two decades, Moldova still struggles with deep-rooted poverty. 

The nation's growth model, heavily reliant on remittances for consumption, has begun to wane even before a series of recent crises. Remittances have decreased, and an aging population has contributed to low productivity. 

The COVID-19 pandemic, energy crises, and refugee inflow due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine exposed Moldova's vulnerability to external shocks, putting a strain on its resources. Energy security concerns persist due to dependence on imports and limited diversification. 

With EU aspirations, Moldova must combat pervasive corruption, yet faces resistance within its judiciary that caused widespread resignations of judges, paralyzing the Supreme Court of Justice due to too few members remaining in office.
To overcome these challenges, Moldova requires both short-term recovery measures and long-term reforms as outlined in the 2023-27 World Bank Country Partnership Framework to transition to a more sustainable growth model aligned with EU integration goals.