Lebanon is Back to Square One with Hariri’s Election

In late 2019, Lebanon was engulfed by uprisings, fueled by injustices, corruption, and sectarianism that led to the resignation of its then prime minister, Saad Hariri. The past year has been disastrous for the Lebanese population, who had to grapple with a currency devaluation of more than 80%, high unemployment rates, the collapse of public services, and a powerful explosion, ravaging half the city of Beirut.

Despite the chaotic situation and the resentment felt by a substantial part of the population towards the same sectarian politicians, Saad Hariri got re-elected as Lebanon’s Prime Minister, barely one year after the start of the revolution. Secured by a limited majority of 65 out of 118 votes, Hariri made a dramatic return. But, what exactly led to his return?

After the August 2020 port blast and the subsequently rising wave of massive protests, Hassan Diab’s cabinet – initially elected after Hariri to save the state from collapsing – had to step down. The blast, caused by 2,750 tons of highly explosive ammonium nitrate irresponsibly stored for six years, resulted in hundreds of deaths, thousands of injuries, and billion dollars’ worth of damages. During Diab’s resignation speech, he accused his predecessors of boundless corruption, which has pushed Lebanon to its current state. 

The deadly blast shocked the world and caught the attention of many leaders, notably the French President Emmanuel Macron. As Lebanon was under a French Mandate, sharing many cultural and linguistic links with France, before its independence, Macron believed he could help pull Lebanese people out of the endured tragedy. In a speech following his visit to the explosion site, he acknowledged the people’s anger against all ruling parties, promising to attempt the implementation of reforms. On his return, one month after the explosion, he declared the purpose of his visit as to “mark the end of a political chapter.” A rising hope started to spread among the Lebanese population over the possible creation of a non-sectarian cabinet that would limit corruption. Macron managed to encourage the election of a new prime minister, Mustafa Adib, who initially received the support of the sectarian political parties. However, talks to form a cabinet were discontinued as the two main Shiite parties, Amal and Hezbollah, refused to give up their control over the all-powerful Finance Ministry. They demanded to designate all Shiite ministers as well, in opposition to the main goal of creating a non-sectarian cabinet made up of technocrats. This led to the expected resignation of Mustafa Adib on September 26th, succumbing to the demands of the two dominant parties. 

Effectively, Lebanon’s positions of power are divided among the main sects of Maronite Christians, Shiites and Sunnis which led to endless manipulation of the Lebanese population. Macron, alongside many hopeful Lebanese citizens and diaspora, believed that the shocking explosion would compel some compromise on behalf of the dominant parties. However, political leaders refused, under any circumstances, to set their interests aside for the better good of all. The IMF even formed a rescue package of $10 billion earlier in March, but negotiations paused after the institutions demanded government reforms. The international community has also made it clear that it would not offer aid unless the implementation of reforms took place. In a speech following Adib’s resignation, Macron cast a big part of the blame on Hezbollah but also vowed to keep his promise to the Lebanese population.

This overall situation led to the redesignation of Saad Hariri for the third time, who insisted his purpose was to form a cabinet of “non-partisan” specialists in order to save the country from further collapse. His return led to controversies among Lebanese people, who viewed the situation as a major step back, and among the international community, his return did not spark full support from his usual backers in the Gulf. Local politicians still hope that Hariri’s international connections will secure the much-needed foreign aid and international loans to support the shattered economy. Without a solid plan, the above does not sound too promising. 

Hariri’s attempt at forming a new government failed just last week after the Free Patriotic Movement Party demanded several powerful ministries to be under its wing, pushing the country back to square one. Lebanon’s sectarian power-sharing system, implemented after 15 years of civil war, dictates that the Prime Minister must be a Sunni Muslim, the speaker of parliament a Shiite Muslim, and the president a Maronite Christian. This system, now also engraved in most public institutions such as the central bank, further complicates the realization of real change in the country’s politics. Moreover, the sanctions imposed by the U.S. on the Free Patriotic Movement’s leader this week, Gebran Bassil, son-in-law of the current President Michel Aoun, to target corruption in Lebanon, may further increase tensions and complicate discussions regarding the formation of a new cabinet.

One month after his nomination, Hariri still struggles to reach a consensus with all parties on the urgent matter of forming an adequate cabinet, causing the refusal of foreign states to send over any form of aid to Lebanon. Lebanon’s economy cannot afford to wait much longer for the implementation of reforms as the situation continues to deteriorate day by day. With the shrinkage of the central bank’s dollar reserves, Lebanon faces a rising possibility of the removal of subsidies on fuel, wheat, and medicine. The removal of subsidies will lead the country to even further desperation and poverty. Without acknowledging the cruciality of the matter, political parties still insist on obtaining their demands to guarantee the realization of their interests by the new cabinet. Hopes for reforms and a new system – free of corruption and sectarian manipulation – seem to slowly diminish, yet again.