India at the Crossroads: Modi's Prospects for Re-Election Amidst Democratic Challenges

As India approaches its next legislative elections, scheduled for the spring of 2024, the political landscape is charged with anticipation and uncertainty. Current Prime Minister Narendra Modi's potential third victory looms large, but the state of Indian democracy and the challenges faced by the opposition parties present a complex scenario. 

Narendra Modi is known for his authoritarian Hindu nationalist ideology, whose popularity has been fueled by India-Pakistan-China conflict, has been a popular figure in Indian politics. Since his ascension to power in 2014, Modi has been credited with India's economic growth, with the nation moving up to the world's fifth-largest economy contributing to 16% to the global growth in 2023 and having a growth rate of 7.2% in fiscal year 2022-2023. However, his tenure has also been marked by accusations of democratic backsliding and fostering a climate of religious intolerance, particularly against Muslims who comprise about 14% of the population. Critics argue that under Modi, India, once celebrated for its secular democracy, is increasingly veering towards a Hindu majoritarian state.

On December 12, 2019, Modi’s administration passed the controversial Citizenship (Amendment) Act (CAA), marking the first instance in India where religion became a criterion for citizenship eligibility. This legislation accelerates the asylum process for non-Muslim immigrants from Afghanistan, Bangladesh, and Pakistan, three Muslim-majority neighboring countries. Alongside, the government's initiatives to implement nationwide citizenship verification through the National Population Register (NPR) and a proposed National Register of Citizens (NRC) have raised concerns. These measures aim to detect "illegal migrants" and have stoked fears among many, particularly Indian Muslims. Many argue that these actions could lead to the disenfranchisement of millions of Indian Muslims, some of whose families have resided in India for generations, by potentially revoking their citizenship rights.

Bharatiya Janata Party's Electoral Strength and Opposition's Fragmentation:

The Bharatiya Janata Party's (BJP) continued electoral success can be attributed to various factors, including the India-Pakistan-China conflict, which has played a significant role in bolstering Modi's popularity. Despite challenges in the affluent southern states, the BJP remains a formidable force, largely due to the fragmented nature of the opposition.

 The Indian National Congress (INC), historically a dominant party, has seen a decline since the tenure of former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh (2004-2014). The 2014 general election was a major turning point, with the Congress party suffering a severe defeat and Modi's emergence as a dominant figure reminiscent of Indira Gandhi, shifting the political landscape towards the right-wing ideology of the BJP. This shift marked a departure from the Congress's centrist approach to a more right-wing political discourse promised by the BJP, aiming to create a "new India" free from Congress influence. 

Efforts to forge a united opposition, such as the formation of a super party named INDIA, have been hindered by regionalist sentiments, especially in the south, making it difficult to present a cohesive challenge to Modi's rule.

In contrast to the national level, regional parties and non-BJP entities, including the INC, have fared better in state elections. This highlights the diverse and complex nature of Indian politics, where regional issues and identities play a significant role. However, the centralization of power and the BJP's dominance at the national level suggest that the party could remain India's ruling party for the foreseeable future, potentially leading to increased authoritarianism.

International reaction:

Internationally, Western countries have been cautious in their critique of Modi's administration. The United States, in particular, views India as a strategic counterbalance to China. As the world’s most populous country, with the second-largest military and the fifth-largest economy, India is uniquely positioned to counterbalance China’s growing influence in the Indo-Pacific. 

Nevertheless, there are growing concerns about India's commitment to democratic values under Modi's leadership. Allegations of India's involvement in the assassination of Sikh separatists in foreign countries, such as the killing of Hardeep Singh Nijjar in Canada, have also raised eyebrows.

As India heads towards its next legislative elections, the key question remains: What path will India choose? While economic development is a priority, the nature and quality of its democracy are equally crucial. With Modi's promise of making India a developed country by 2047, the centenary of its independence, the nation stands at a crossroads. The upcoming elections will not only decide the immediate political future but also set the tone for India's democratic journey in the coming decades.