Divided Kingdom: The Road to Scotland’s Second Referendum

In September 2014, Scottish citizens responded to a simple question: whether they wanted Scotland to be an independent country or not. With an 84.6% turnout, the population was divided: 55.3% voted against the independence of Scotland while 44.7% voted in favour of independence. Six years later, many citizens are now asking for a second referendum; in fact, Scottish independence has taken the lead in the polls, with 53% of respondents demonstrating eagerness for an independent nation. Even with the recent drop in support for the cause due to the United Kingdom’s successful vaccine rollout, the outcome of a hypothetical referendum would be far from clear. Given the results of the last referendum, what has changed in the last six years to push Scottish citizens to advocate for independence? 

In June 2016 (less than two years after the first Scottish referendum), every citizen of the United Kingdom voted on whether they wanted the UK to remain a member of the European Union. The outcome was 51.9% voting to leave the European Union and 48.1% voting to remain. This extremely close result underlines an even greater divide amongst the regions of the country.

With the second-lowest turnout rate at 67.2%, 68% of Scotland’s population voted against Brexit. With a mere 32% voting in favour, Scotland now has to live with the repercussions of Brexit, despite an overwhelming majority of its population voting against it. This prompted the government of Scotland led by the separatist Scottish National Party (SNP) to publish the “Scotland's Place in Europe” report in December 2016, stressing the need to at least maintain the European Single Market and Customs Union for all of the UK. In 2018, six months before Britain was due to leave the EU, the government published another strategy titled: “Scotland's place in Europe: our way forward.” Mentioning Scottish independence only once, the plan examined the different Brexit scenarios and their impact on Scotland as a reason to facilitate the reintegration of the country into the European Union.

Scotland’s unique trade partners and exports provide some insights into the singular stance of the Scottish population on this issue. Of the £85 million of Scotland’s exports in 2018, 19% were to the European Union and 60% were to the rest of the UK. Moreover, exports from Scotland to the European Union have seen an increase of 4.5% in 2018, making the EU the exporting region with the biggest progression. After the United States, the rest of Scotland's top five exporters, France, The Netherlands, Germany, and Belgium, are all EU members, highlighting the importance of the EU for Scotland. The UK is currently reshaping its relations with the EU, redefining its trade policy, and even considering forming a new union known as CANZUK.  The question is therefore legitimate, is Brexit in the interest of Scotland? The imposition of a newly drafted trading policy, especially when considering the limited support for Brexit in the region, could anger Scots that were previously aligned with the “No” side. 

Another explanation for Scotland’s anti-Brexit stance can be found by analyzing its second-largest export: seafood. Having the fourth-largest Exclusive Economic Zone, Scotland could have benefited from the Common Fishery policy as long as it remained a member of the EU. Under this policy, all EU countries receive equal access to all EU seas. Along with the access to the European Single Market, this policy is highly vital for Scotland’s fishing industry, as outlined in the SNP government’s report on “Scotland’s Future and Scottish Fisheries.” This report exposes the indifference from the UK government which considers the Scottish fishing industry “expendable” and presents independence as a way to protect quotas and capture a greater share of the EU fisheries budgets.

 Following Brexit, the Northern Ireland Protocol has been adopted, aligning Northern Ireland with EU regulations. This arrangement, which spares the island of border controls between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland, will be subject to a vote four years following its implementation. The people of Northern Ireland will have to choosewhether they want to keep the protocol in place or not. Access to the EU’s single market for the region creates a dichotomy within the United Kingdom, where it is more difficult for one part of the country to deal with the UK than with the EU, with Northern Ireland now requiring control for goods arriving from the rest of the country. Despite not sharing a border with an EU country, many Scots criticize this deal, perceiving it as a competitive disadvantage for Scotland with regards to the EU Common Market as well as with regards to trade between the two regions. As the SNP has been requesting similar terms since 2016, the favouritism Northern Ireland seemingly enjoys does not sit well with Scotland, fueling further independence enthusiasm. 

With the upcoming elections on the 6th of May, the SNP has a good chance of gaining a majority of Scotland’s parliament. Even with public support, however, Scotland’s independence could be facing a new challenge: the opposition of the UK government to the holding of a second referendum. Playing on the words used by the SNP in the last campaign, the Boris Johnson administration is hammering the “once in a generation” aspect of the 2014 referendum, undermining the legitimacy of a new consultation in such a short period of time. Another weakness for the sovereigntist movement could be coming from within its ranks, such as the recent Salmond-Sturgeon debacle.  While Alex Salmond was cleared of the charge brought against him concerning matters of sexual misconduct, he blamed Nicola Sturgeon and members of the SNP of orchestrating a plot against him, in an attempt to damage his reputation. Unfortunately, division and fratricidal wars in the ranks will ultimately benefit the opposition.

While Westminster promised Scotland more power if it rejected the referendum in 2014, separatists remain unsatisfied six years later. Fueled in part by Brexit, independence might be the only option for Scots to rejoin the European Union and to have the UK respect their democratic voice. Contrary to Catalonia and other nations fighting for independence, the UK is somewhat familiar with referendums, especially those petitioning for more autonomy. However, the choice of whether Scotland becomes an EU state or remains constrained by UK trade policies must be made by the Scottish people, and not by politicians in Westminster.