COP26: No Simple Solution to Climate Change
Experts have known the effects of climate change for decades, yet there have been few significant changes to how our countries operate. A 1.5-degree increase in global warming can have catastrophic effects, such as severe heat waves and rising water levels. The annual United Nations Climate Change Conference (UNCC) attempts to address this growing issue. This year, under the name COP26, the UNCCC took place in Glasgow, Scotland, and featured leaders and delegates from 197 nations. Some of the topics covered included the use of coal and financial aid for developing countries, and a last-minute change to the pact by China and India. COP26 demonstrated that global warming is not just a black and white issue, but a complex problem as each country has its own agenda. When countries meet again next year, leaders must achieve increased cooperation and focus on making the fight against climate change fair for each country.
The promise of a phase-out of coal usage would arguably have the most significant impact on the future of climate change. Coal, the most significant contributor to climate change, accounts for 72% of greenhouse gas emissions from the electricity sector and 46% of carbon dioxide emissions worldwide. The Glasgow Climate Pact is the first to address coal emissions. While the inclusion of coal indicates progress, the outcome in Scotland could have been far better. Agreements in an early pact draft agree for a phase-out of unabated coal power. China and India, however, made a last-minute change to the agreement, revising it to a phase-down of coal instead. The question is, will the inclusion of coal itself be enough?
Estimates demonstrate that greenhouse gas emissions before COP26 were at 52.4 gigatons, with China dominating this output at 26.1% of total emissions. The United States (13.4%), EU (7.6%), and India (6.5%) make up another 27.5% of total emissions. Projections show that the Glasgow Pact will reduce emissions by 20% to 41.9 gigatonnes, 37% higher than the target emission rates needed by 2030 to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees. Global warming is limited to just 2.4 degrees at the current pace.
Blaming the failure of only phasing-down coal usage on China and India would be convenient. The total phase-out of coal, which China and India blocked, would be a significant aid in combating climate change. The U.K. was able to phase out coal by switching to natural gas over the last decade, which accounted for almost half of their 30% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. Rapidly developing countries, such as China and India, find this switch much more difficult. Their booming population and demand for energy limit their capabilities to transfer natural gas from their current use of coal reserves. Furthermore, while China and India rank high in total greenhouse gas emissions, they use less per capita than countries such as America and Russia. China is fourth in per capita emissions while India sits at seventh place, indicating a more effective use of greenhouse gasses than other top emitters. Nonetheless, prioritizing clean energy in China and India is essential due to their large population sizes.
Financing countries hardest hit by climate change stood out as an important issue during COP26. Developing countries are the most susceptible to climate change due to their geographic location and socio-economic factors. In addition, many of these countries rely on agriculture for their livelihood, which increasing temperatures will threaten. Their argument, brought forward by the Prime Minister of Barbados during the conference, is that wealthier nations such as the United States and those in the European Union have released a significant amount of greenhouse gas emissions (responsible for 21% of emissions). Yet the poorer countries must bear the effects of climate change. A proposed "Loss and Damage" fund would help developing countries endure the cost of rebuilding infrastructure, replacing damaged crops, and relocating devastated communities after extreme storms. Initially proposed at the 2015 Paris Climate Accords, this idea has not gained much traction. Developed countries fear being held liable for climate change in court (the United States objects to a separate loss and damage fund). However, progress is happening as Scotland pledged two million pounds for the loss and damage fund at COP26. While this is promising, more countries need to contribute as natural disasters caused $210 billion in damage globally last year.
The Loss and Damage fund is a strong solution to aid developing countries in weathering the storm; however, it does not solve the increase in global temperature. In future discussions, capable nations should create a fund to assist countries in switching to cleaner energy. As stated previously, China and India are reluctant to phase out coal completely. Coal is the largest energy source used by China and India, as they hold the fourth and fifth largest coal reserves. Thus, it would be a massive change for these countries to switch to renewable energy that is unrealistic for them to do themselves. China's foreign ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian argued that "Energy transitions should be based on national circumstances and developing countries’ energy security should be guaranteed," responding to criticism of refusing to phase out coal. India's Environment Minister, Bhupender Yadav, followed suit by stating that "Developing countries still have to deal with their poverty reduction agenda,” as coal is needed to fuel their rapidly expanding economy. While China and India have to wrestle with choosing their economy or climate change, island nations are struggling to accept the results of COP26. Gaston Browne, the prime minister of Antigua and Barbuda, felt defeated after the switch to phase-down coal was made: “The very language they are using shows us that they are trying to game the system. For us in the Caribbean, in the Pacific Ocean, this is imperilling our very existence”.
A solution to this problem is complicated, as China and India should not have to derail their growing economy, but the gravity of climate change requires a rapid response. Wealthy nations must consider the situation of other countries that need assistance to either recover from climate change disasters or switch to cleaner energy. Current data shows that not enough change has happened to prevent the irreversible effects of climate change. When leaders meet back next year for COP27 in Egypt, they must consider how countries such as China and India can tackle climate change without hindering their economy in the short term. This plan must include financial aid for developing economies, vital to give each country a fair chance to fight, and more importantly, survive global warming.