China and Canada: Partners or Adversaries?

On May 27th, the British Columbia Supreme Court of Justice allowed the extradition of Meng Wanzhou, Huawei’s Chief Financial Officer (CFO), to the United States, immediately outraging the Chinese government. This shocking announcement is only the latest development of an affair dating back to December 2018, when Meng was arrested by Canadian authorities on US demand for violating US sanctions placed against Iran, which sparked a diplomatic crisis between Canada and China. The latter immediately retaliated by incarcerating two Canadian citizens, Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor, officially indicted for stealing state-secret documents. Canada, UK, and US have all raised concerns on the evident political motivations behind the arrests of two Michaels. This week, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau rejected calls from China for a prisoner exchange, reiterating rule of law and the independence of the Canadian justice system. The crisis sprouting from this diplomatic feud has even spread to other matters, as China now stands opposed to an eventual Canadian seat at the UN Security Council, a position which Canada has been campaigning for years. The diplomatic ties between both nations seem profoundly damaged, their two positions being irreconcilable. But can the Huawei crisis alone explain the nature of relations between China and Canada, and is the diplomatic situation as tense as it looks?

Canada, by its traditional alignment with the United States, is often regarded as one of China’s natural adversaries. Many facts support this claim, including Canada’s affiliation to the newly created Inter-Parliamentary Alliance, a union of lawmakers determined to challenge Chinese policy in Hong Kong. In response to China’s crackdown on the city, US President Donald Trump declared his support for the protesters, and Justin Trudeau followed, stating that he “will always defend Canadians and Canadian interests,” referring to the 300,000 Canadian citizens living in Hong-Kong. 

The United States’ influence over Sino-Canadian relations has been more visible in the arrest of Meng Wanzhou, since the Canadian authorities were acting upon requests of US officials. In fact, many have argued that this arrest was conducted on purely political-motivations and that the legal process was abused to accelerate Meng’s extradition to the US. Even a memo by the Canadian Security Intelligence Service underlined “the highly political nature of the arrest” and stated that this action was “likely to send shockwaves around the world”, forecasting the impact that it would have on international relations. Meng’s arrest came out to be very beneficial to Donald Trump, as Huawei’s CFO stands out to be a key figure in the development of the 5G technology led by China. One hundred times faster than 4G, 5G technology will allow almost instant connection to the Internet, while also making the remote control of electronic devices much easier. The possible use of this technology as a spying menace, however, was regarded as a national security threat by the US government. Meng’s arrest thus represented an opportunity to crack down on Huawei, as the company was later placed on the US Entity List, barring it from dealing with American companies. For these reasons, this affair proved to be fruitful to Trump, but had disastrous effects on Canada’s relationship with China.

Trudeau also challenges Chinese President Xi Jinping over its foreign policy, by trying to counter China’s growing dominance over the South China Sea. This maritime region claimed by five countries has seen rapid military escalation when the Chinese navy intervened to assert its power, and multiple western countries, including Canada, have responded by sending warships of their own. As of now, China still claims sovereignty over 90% of the South China Sea, and tensions remain high in the region. Moreover, to further balance China’s weight in the Pacific, Canada has joined the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP), a trade agreement aiming to bind together countries around the Pacific such as Vietnam, New Zealand and Japan to avoid dependence on the Chinese economy. Even with the withdrawal of the US from the TPP in 2017, this alliance has been sustained by its members, and continues to promote trade to the detriment of China.

Dispute over political issues is fairly common between Canada and China. But the two nations do come together in certain issues such as Donald Trump’s “America First” policies where their interests are aligned. The arrival of Donald Trump at the White House marked a turning point for Canadian exports. After US’s withdrawal from the TPP, Trump imposed new tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminium, and called for a renegotiation of NAFTA. After a setback from its largest trading partner and neighbour, Justin Trudeau sought other possibilities to keep the Canadian economy booming, opening trade talks with the Chinese government. Even as the Huawei scandal interrupted the negotiations, Canadian diplomats maintained their efforts to sustain good diplomatic relations between the two nations.

The United States’ diplomatic policy has also prompted Canada and China to stand side by side on the issue of the Arctic trade routes. After the release of an American declaration judging Canada’s claim to the Northwest passage as “illegitimate”, Canadian official Andrew Leslie stated that “Canada welcomes opportunity for further productive cooperation with China” in the Arctic, reaffirming China’s importance as a major player in the region. Since China is not considered as one of the “Arctic Nations”, this unexpected support from Canada was welcomed by the Chinese government.

The COVID-19 pandemic has provided China and Canada with new opportunities to improve their relations. Enacting a strict travel ban on travellers coming from China in February, Chinese spokesperson Hua Chunying praised Canada for not following the same policy as the United States. As Donald Trump unleashed abrasive accusations on China, proclaiming their responsibility in the outbreak and the spread of the virus, Trudeau refrained from using an aggressive language on Chinese handling of the pandemic and stayed committed to working with China to resolve this worldwide crisis. Moreover, Canada stood as a firm defender of the World Health Organization (WHO) by maintaining its funding and underlining the importance of collaborating with such an organisation, much to China’s satisfaction.

Sino-Canadian relations are much more complex than they might appear as they are heavily linked to the US foreign policy. Since Donald Trump’s inauguration in 2016, Canadian foreign policy has slowly shifted from being aligned to the US to a more ambiguous situation. Canada manages its relations with both its southern neighbour and China to best fit its own interests. For example, with regards to the Hong Kong situation, in which Canadian citizens are directly in danger, Canada sides with the US. However, when Trump challenged Canada’s claim to the Arctic, Trudeau chose to collaborate with China on the matter. As this game of foreign diplomacy goes on, the evolution of Canada’s ties with China will heavily rely on the outcome of the 2020 US Presidential Elections.