Belarus: The Struggle Against “Europe’s Last Dictator”
For the past thirty years, President Alexander Lukashenko made sure of one thing: What happened in Belarus stayed in Belarus.
The President successfully kept events in Belarus closed off from the rest of the world for three decades, until the scales tipped against his favour in August. A week after the national elections on August 9th, an estimated crowd of 200,000 protestors rushed to the capital Minsk to demand Lukashenko’s resignation for committing election fraud.
The election commission announced that Lukashenko won with 80.23% of the vote while main opposition leader Svetlana Tikhanovskaya only got 9.9% of the votes. Protests erupted after the polls closed as Tikhanovskaya stated she would have gotten 60-70% of the votes had they been counted honestly. Peaceful protesters soon faced a violent police force that used tear gas, rubber bullets, water cannons, and army trucks. According to UN Special Rapporteur Anais Marin, the police arrested more than 10,000 protestors and state agents likely tortured around 500 people.
Opposition to the president has been boiling over for years and the latest fraudulent elections served as a tipping point for the protests. The turmoil unfolded as a consequence of Lukashenko’s decades-long populist rule and his insufficient response to the COVID-19 pandemic.
After rising to power in 1994, Lukashenko worked the so-called “Vegas Rule” in his favour by preserving the communist ideals of the Soviet Union. He kept the media, parliament, and manufacturing under the state’s rigid control and monitored his citizens with the secret police force also known as the KGB. Over 120 government critics, including journalists and one of the main opposition leaders, Sergei Tikhnovsky, have been arrested or exiled. Lukashenko’s authoritarian regime ensured that no news of human rights violations trickled out of the country and has since earned him the title of being “Europe’s last dictator”.
Lukashenko’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic became the final straw that accelerated the demands for his leave. He brushed of anxious questions about the coronavirus with responses such as “There are no viruses here. Do you see any of them flying around? I don’t see them either.” The president dubbed the virus as a “psychosis” and recommended remedies such as going to the sauna, drinking vodka, and playing hockey. His unwillingness in declaring a nation-wide lockdown reduced his popularity drastically as many hospitals experienced shortages in the face of 73,208 cases. Official numbers of cases and deaths appears to be suppressed as the president himself said all the deaths resulted from underlying causes. Lukashenko’s official policy seems to be putting the economy first at the cost of human lives.
Tensions escalated even more as Lukashenko secretly sworn into his sixth term of presidency. The inauguration occurred under wraps to avoid mass demonstrations that have been going on for seven consecutive weeks.
As the pro-democracy demonstrations grew, wide-ranging response from the international landscape started coming. The United States and much of the world dismissed the results of the election. United Nations responded to the events by condemning police violence and stating that the arrests violated basic human rights. However, two major powers, China and Russia, recognized the elections as legitimate. The fact that these two nations are among the five permanent members of the UN Security Council, with power to veto any substantive resolution, makes it difficult for the UN to come up with a concrete action against Lukashenko. Trusting his veto power, Russian president Vladimir Putin even pledged to send Russian security forces if protests grew and loaned Lukashenko $1.5 billion at their meeting in Sochi earlier this month. Russia’s aid is a clear indication of the economic link and military alliance between the “union states” as part of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). This move symbolizes a “soft annexation” for Putin, as an economic integration allows Russia to extend its power toward Europe.
The feedback from the international political landscape shapes the expectations of Belarus’ future. Considering the fact that Belarus plays the role of a buffer state between NATO and Russia, Putin’s reaction did not come as a surprise. On the other hand, due to the rise of populist leaders in Poland and Hungary, the European Union wants to remove Lukashenko to create a more powerful buffer against Russia. Nonetheless, EU put efforts against Belarus on hold as Cyprus vetoed the action, reasoning the rising tensions with Turkey in the Eastern Mediterranean.
Yet, much to the dismay of Western countries, Lukashenko seems unlikely to step down. Even though the protests shattered his invincible appearance, the police force’s loyalty suggests that Lukashenko will stay in power. He also blocked TV channels from showing anything other than English Premier League which intensifies his dictatorial regime.
None of these facts seem to stop the protestors as thousands of people continued to protest this week. They even rejected the official red-green flag of Belarus as it looks similar to the flag of the Soviet era. Instead, the demonstrators use the white-red flag as a symbol of opposition to the government. Protestors also sing traditional songs in Belarusian, not in the official state language of Russian, as a political statement to oppose the unity between Putin and Lukashenko.
Lukashenko should be held accountable for his human rights violations against the people of Belarus, but the absence of unanimous international action from the UN or EU makes it challenging. Undoubtedly, the Belarus strongman will not resign, and the turmoil will continue.
However, one thing seems certain: What happens in Belarus does not stay in Belarus anymore.