Behind Operation Peace Spring

Following US President Donald Trump’s announcement that his country would withdraw its troops from northeastern Syria, Turkey officially launched Operation Peace Spring on October 9th. The operation mainly targets the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) and the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) associated with the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) which carried out over 70 attacks in southeastern Turkey and caused approximately 13,000 casualties in the past 30 years. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced that the operation further aims to remove the Kurdish-led forces from the border region and establish a “safe zone” for over 3.6 million Syrian refugees currently residing in Turkey and willing to return to their homes.  

Turkey has been condemned by the international community for its military incursion. The main concern is that the offensive would destabilize the region and cause civilian suffering. Yet, Turkey has made it clear that it has no intention to terminate the operation any time soon. The country has severely suffered from the actions of ISIL and from its struggles with Kurdish extremist groups in the past, and the costs of the dispute in Syria have become unbearable for Turkey, both economically and socially.  

When the Syrian Civil War began in 2011, Turkey agreed that Syrian refugees would be settled in refugee camps located in the southeastern parts of Turkey. However, as the dispute in northeastern Syria deepened, the number of refugees in camps kept increasing and they eventually started to move into neighboring provinces. Public services such as education and healthcare in these areas have become inadequate, and unemployment rates, which had already reached alarming levels, have further increased. Despite its struggling economy, Turkey has been accommodating an estimated 3.6 million Syrian refugees, making it the largest host country. Yet, the number greatly exceeds the country’s hosting capacities, and has put significant pressure on the country’s economy. In addition, the dispute in the region, along with the terrorist threat posed by the aforementioned groups, has damaged the tourism sector, which made up approximately 11% of the country’s GDP and facilitated 8% of employment in 2012. Between 2015 and 2016, the number of tourists visiting Turkey has plummeted by 30%, accelerating the currency crisis.  

Turkey claims to have initiated the operation with the purpose of ensuring its national security and well-being by countering what it considers to be terrorist groups along its bordering regions. The refugee crisis has had significant impact on the Turkish society, as well as on the country’s economy. The operation aims to eradicate the terrorist presence in northeastern Syria, which has been threatening the state’s territorial integrity and political stability for almost a decade. Consequently, the local population in the conflict areas would be liberated, and theoretically, a safe and voluntary return of those who had fled their homes and currently residing in Turkey could be arranged.  

Turkey has its reasons to sustain the offense. Yet, its aggressivity towards Kurdish groups could seem to be the product of irrational decision-making. The very beginning of the dispute, where Kurdish and Arab populations failed to coexist as two distinct ethnic identities in northeastern Syria, should be the center of the solution process. Otherwise, the operation would only bring temporary peace, given that it succeeds. Also, in order for the mission to become efficient and realistic, cooperation with the Syrian government – meaning the termination of any affiliation with the extremist groups in the region – and the assistance of the NATO members, are essential.