A Supersonic Future: How Fast is it Approaching?

During a time when air travel remains uncertain and overseas trips a distant dream for many, United Airlines’ potential order of fifteen units of the concept-supersonic aircraft, the Overture, which promises carbon neutral speedier flight alternatives, has been received with wide-spread excitement over the future of air travel.

Dallas-based startup Boom Technology debuted the Boom Overture with the mission to reinvent supersonic civilian air travel. After securing over 100 million dollars in financing from venture capitalists and enthusiastic airlines, Boom Technology announced this ambitious project, a supersonic commercial aircraft envisioned to achieve 1,800 km/hr., faster than the speed of sound. While the typical aircraft’s cruising speed is roughly 900 kilometers per hour, this makes the Overture capable of cutting flight time nearly in half. For example, this aircraft would facilitate flying between New York City and London in roughly 3 hours and 30 minutes, a concept only previously achieved by the infamous Concorde, the only other widely known supersonic passenger jet in history.

While the Concorde revolutionized the vision for air travel before its permanent retirement in 2003, the obstacles it faced during its operative years have now become some of Overture’s own design and business concerns due to its similarity in concept and innovation.

Flying faster than the speed of sound creates a sonic boom, a loud thunder-like noise that is disruptive for civilians. Consequently, supersonic jets face restrictions and must achieve maximum cruising speed over oceans instead of land in efforts to minimize disruption to people. As noise-complaints were a primary reason for the discontinuation of many routes operated by the Concorde and ultimately its operational utility, addressing this issue is vital for successful implementation of another supersonic jet in modern day. Boom has claimed that it expects the Overture to be as quiet as other commercial aircraft during take-offs and landing, and significantly improve upon the design of the Concorde to lessen the sonic boom.

Due to the energy employed in supersonic travel, pollution also remains a major concern regarding the design of the Overture. On top of energy and fuel consumption, the altitude at which the Overture will be flying, approximately 60,000 feet above sea level, make its potential emissions possibly more harmful than those at sea-level. According to Boom, the aircraft will maintain carbon-neutral operations and hopes to witness an industry-wide transition to sustainable aviation fuels. This claim appears ambitious, as the industry is miles away from this environmental goal. Low supply of biofuels and indecisive policies pose logistics concerns and an adoption rate for greener options to be lower than desired. This directly relates to the third obstacle that the Overture aims to overcome: costs.

The complexity of its design, as well as the added value of time-savings made the Concorde a synonym of luxury travel during its operative years, with costs for round trips climbing as high as $20,000 (in 2016 USD). As concepts and design are by no means finalized, the projected price for an airline ticket with the Overture remains under speculation. Intuitively, ticket cost will be a defining factor in the Overture’s sales growth and demand. Boom expects that the Overture’s airline clients can achieve profitability even when charging no more than a regular business-class ticket. Boom’s CEO envisions a world where the fastest flight also provides the cheapest option, which is the source of inspiration for the Overture’s technology and innovation.

However, the profitability of an airliner also depends heavily on the cost of manufacturing and ultimately the cost of the actual aircraft. Achieving economies of scale for aircraft manufacturers such as Boeing and Airbus is imperative to maintain production costs under control. While the current value of the Overture is $200 million, should the aircraft experience low demand from airlines, its high production cost will result in higher selling costs, ultimately translating into increased passenger airfares.

United Airlines claims that the acquisition of fifteen units of the Overtures and its partnership to accelerate the development process coincides with the company’s strategy to provide innovative and sustainable travelling solutions. This agreement remains contingent on the product’s compliance with safety, operating and sustainability requirements. Should the current anticipated timeline hold, trial flights are scheduled as early as 2026, while passenger flights could commence in the year 2029.

While details remain limited, this venture sparks a wave of interest and curiosity regarding the dynamics of future air travel. After suffering from the pandemic, the continuous developments and investments in the air-travel industry provide a glimmer of hope for the upcoming chapter of air travel.

In 2020, the aviation industry totaled merely 40% of 2019 revenue values, indicating levels similar to those 20 years ago. The pandemic’s effect on consumer behaviour, expenditure patterns, travel requirements, and the emphasis placed on health measures appear irreversible in the near future. Some business models predict recovery back to pre-pandemic levels as late as the end of 2023 based on vaccine availability and rollout, healthcare testing, and government regulations. Business travel will likely take longer to recover than leisure trips because of the worldwide adaptation to telework and other forms of flexible, remote working arrangements. Business class ticket sales awarded substantial margins, particularly in long-haul flights. Nevertheless, with shrinking demand on this segment of customers, airlines must be strategic about their future operations. This is particularly true about an aircraft whose predecessor catered business travelers nearly exclusively.

It is not uncommon for airlines to take low-demand periods as an opportunity to renovate their fleets. Due to the unprecedented, out of the ordinary nature of the pandemic, air travel could face a permanent change.

According to Boom’s research report, the Overture’s speed can deepen human connections and improve business relationships, while making the planet “dramatically more accessible.” Whether customers will favour these speedier travelling alternatives by the time the Overture becomes operative will be determined by a variety of factors, including ticket prices and availability of sustainable aviation fuel infrastructure. However, one thing is certain about the outlook for the airline industry: it is poised for transformations. This ambitious start-up aims to build better solutions for the air travel industry by “not just building on the Concorde legacy, but building on everything [the world has] learned since the Concorde legacy.” Perhaps Boom’s vision will prove to the world that supersonic travel is an idea worth reviving.